Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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075 FXUS65 KFGZ 292350 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 450 PM MST Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and storms are expected this evening. Coverage will increase and push westward Sunday into next week as temperatures remain warm. Drier, hot weather expected by the end of next work week. && .DISCUSSION...A strong ridge stretches across the southern tier of states today from the east coast all the way to Arizona. We are on the western fringe of the ridge which is continuing to allow for some southerly flow and moisture advection into the region. For today, the best moisture is in the eastern 1/3 of the state with some drying noted toward the west. Isolated showers and storms are still possible as far west as Prescott this afternoon, with higher coverage east of a Flagstaff to Payson line. The heavy rain/flooding threat is also lower today, with just a few spots in eastern AZ possibly seeing some heavier rain. Sunday through Monday - southerly flow continues with moisture expected to increase further with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times. Thunderstorm complexes may also develop over northern Mexico and southern Arizona Sunday afternoon/evening which could move northward into central and northern Arizona later Sunday evening into Monday morning. Much of the guidance now indicates this possibility, and we boosted PoPs above NBM guidance for this period. Another round of showers and storms is likely Monday afternoon, though the early morning activity could keep instability down due to a rain-cooled boundary layer and clouds limiting daytime heating. Tuesday through Wednesday - the ridge retreats farther into the southeast US as another strong ridge over the Pacific shifts eastward into California. Moisture is forecast to be most plentiful from the Mogollon Rim southward, with 30-50% chances for storms each afternoon. Thursday (4th of July) through Friday - the strong ridge over the Pacific is forecast to move eastward toward Arizona. This will result in a warming trend area-wide, and a drying trend at least from the Mogollon Rim northward. South of the Mogollon Rim, moisture may linger so that a slight chance of afternoon convection remains in the forecast for now - that could change with later guidance. Temperatures are forecast to increase to several degrees above normal with moderate to high Heat Risk forecast over the lower elevations of Yavapai Co, Grand Canyon country, and the Page area. && .AVIATION...Sunday 30/00Z through Monday 01/00Z...VFR conditions are expected away from any TSRA/SHRA. East of a KPRC-KPGA line, SCT SHRA/TSRA until around 03Z. Storm coverage will push westward on Sunday and become more widespread. Thunderstorms may produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty winds. Otherwise, daytime SW winds 10- 20kts. OUTLOOK...Monday 01/00Z through Wednesday 03/00Z...VFR conditions are expected away from any TSRA/SHRA. Storms are expected to continue overnight Sunday night and into the day Monday. SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA through this period, and thunderstorms may produce brief MVFR conditions. Storm activity decreases Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Away from thunderstorms or outflows, daytime S-SW winds 5-15kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through early this evening, mainly southeast of a Prescott to Flagstaff to Window Rock line. Storm chances push back north and west Sunday, with a good chance of rain continuing overnight Sunday into Monday morning and some storm redevelopment Monday afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds likely near storms, with daytime southwest wind 10-20 mph outside of storm activity. Tuesday through Thursday...Daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity continue through Wednesday, with hotter and drier weather starting Thursday. Winds mainly west to northwest 10-15 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff