692
FXUS63 KFGF 050455
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1155 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend
  and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at
  this time.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers are still lingering mainly over the Devils Lake Basin
and the far southern Red River Valley (near ND/SD state line)
and west central MN. Clearing trends are already underway to
the northeast as intensity of returns where showers are in
place are weakening. This is generally reflected by the previous
forecast, though I did make some adjustments to better reflect
coverage trends. There hasn`t been any recent lighting activity
within our CWA in the last hour. This matches the expected
trends associated with the loss of daytime heating/stabilization
in the low levels in our area where mid level lapse rates are
weak. I trended thunderstorm coverage downward as well with this
update, to better reflect those trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 705 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The main mid level low has continued to track southeast and
areas of more defined surface convergence remain outside of our
area. As low level lapse rates have already started to
stabilize the threat for weak tornadoes has diminished. There
have been some areas of thunderstorms training and locally
heavy rain over more urban areas could result in localized flash
flooding. Trends in actively show a general decrease in
organization and movement south and as we decouple
showers/storms should rapidly end (as shown by CAMs).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...Synopsis...

H5 troughing prevails across the central CONUS with northwest flow
aloft over the Northern Plains. Look for a continuation of a
relatively active shortwave pattern through the next week as a
western H5 ridge maintains northwest flow for at least the next
several days. Signals suggest a weakening trend of the upper ridge
toward the end of next week, which would serve to support a more
progressive, but still wavy, pattern.

Upper low continues to move to the south this afternoon and evening,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the area.
Thunderstorm activity thus far today has been on the weaker side,
with perhaps small hail with the strongest cells. The environment
will remain supportive of funnels and weak tornadoes through early
this evening due to the prominence of several stationary boundaries
draped across the area. Instability will taper off as we head into
the evening hours, leaving only scattered showers heading into the
overnight hours.

Friday brings a chance for mainly afternoon scattered showers and
thunderstorms, along with a chance for wildfire smoke during the
evening. Another shortwave approaches the region Friday night into
Saturday, with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible during
the afternoon and evening. Although a few strong storms are
possible, widespread severe weather is not expected Friday or
Saturday. Rain chances continue into Saturday night before tapering
off Sunday.

Another shortwave will bring rain chances into the area Monday, with
otherwise relatively quiet weather heading into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Isolated showers in eastern ND and west central MN should end
early in the TAF period and trends support this remaining
outside of the vicinity of TAF sites. There is a signal for MVFR
stratus and possible fog in west central MN with a period of
impacts shown by a consensus of models at KFAR between 10Z and
14Z Friday. VFR should then return and prevail through the
remaining afternoon (with some daytime CU in the 7000-9000 FT
AGL layer). Winds are expected to remain mainly north to
northwest less than 10kt through the TAF period (becoming light
and variable during the nighttime periods).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR