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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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270 FXUS63 KFGF 041131 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 631 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances (50%) this afternoon and evening. Chance (less than 10%) for funnels in west central MN. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely. - Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Showers continue to move into the Sheyenne River Valley and southern Red River Valley this morning. This will continue through the remainder of the morning, with coverage increasing for the Devils Lake Basin and Fargo area by early afternoon. We have seen some patchy fog at times near Lake of the Woods, Roseau, and Beltrami counties this morning, but that should start to clear out as the sun continues to rise and temperatures warm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft continues to bring transient shortwaves through the weekend and into the early portions of next week. Strong ridging out toward the southwestern United States remains in place along with strong troughing over the Hudson Bay. Several chances for precipitation through the end of the week, into the weekend, and into next week. Weak instability and lift on the back edge of the trough over the Hudson Bay helped spark isolated showers and storms over the far northern Red River Valley this morning. Over the past several hours they have been on a downward trend in intensity. Further precipitation is moving in from the James River Valley towards the southern Red River Valley this morning. ...Independence Day Forecast... A shortwave out of southern Saskatchewan will deepen as it moves through central ND and into eastern SD this afternoon and evening. On the northern and eastern edge of the wave we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop. Rain will affect a majority of eastern ND and northwestern MN, but the highest chances will be towards the Devils Lake Basin, back down to the Sheyenne River Valley and for areas along and south of I-94. Highest instability will be in the southern Red River Valley and into west central MN. There is a less than 10% chance for funnels to develop on the leading edge of the upper level wave as it passes south of the area. This chance is for areas in west central MN during the afternoon when we have peak daytime heating. Precipitation chances begin to diminish in coverage around 8-10pm as the upper level wave moves east of the area. Areas along and north of Highway 2 in MN will have the lowest chance (20%) for precipitation this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, temperatures will hover in the 70s across the region. ...Additional Chances for Precipitation... There will be a chance Friday afternoon for hazy conditions as NAM guidance has indicated the potential for smoke aloft. This is thanks to the fires affecting portions of northern Canada. Upper level winds from the northwesterly flow will help translate the smoke down toward the northern plains Friday afternoon through early Saturday. We will continue to be stuck in the northwesterly flow over the weekend and into early next week. Multiple chances for precipitation are possible, with the best chance on Saturday as a stronger wave moves out of southern Canada. Instability is higher (2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE), shear is 20-25kts, and there is strong moisture return from the south Saturday afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms are possible, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Further chances for precipitation early next week. Clusters (70% of them) have started to hint at the pattern starting to change end of next week as the ridge out west begins to break down slowly and shift eastward. Other clusters (30% of them) have the ridge maintaining its strength longer. If the ridge where to slowly break down next week and shift eastward we would start to warm to above normal temperatures and dry out. The other scenario keeps us stuck in the current pattern we are already in. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions prevail for the TAF sites this morning and through the TAF period. Showers are starting to move into the Sheyenne River Valley and will be approaching FAR mid to late morning. Shower chances move into the rest of the TAF sites this afternoon, with ceilings remaining VFR under BKN to OVC skies. -TSRA will be possible for FAR and DVL 21z-03z, but confidence on impacts to the sites are low. Showers move out of the area 03-05z. Winds remain light and variable for BJI through the period, but turn northerly for TVF, DVL, FAR, and GFK by early afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Spender DISCUSSION...Spender AVIATION...Spender