834
FXUS63 KFGF 041738
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances (50%) this afternoon and evening. Chance
  (less than 10%) for funnels in west central MN. Severe
  thunderstorms are unlikely.

- Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend
  and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at
  this time.

&&


UPDATE
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Isolated thunderstorms continue this morning just west of the
forecast area (Bottineau and Carrington) and are nearly
stationary at this time. Additional shower activity across far
southeastern North Dakota is lifting very slowly to the north
and east. This trend is expected to continue through the
remainder of the morning. Lightning activity across the southern
Red River Valley is minimal at this time, but will likely
increase as the day progresses.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers continue to move into the Sheyenne River Valley and
southern Red River Valley this morning. This will continue
through the remainder of the morning, with coverage increasing
for the Devils Lake Basin and Fargo area by early afternoon. We
have seen some patchy fog at times near Lake of the Woods,
Roseau, and Beltrami counties this morning, but that should
start to clear out as the sun continues to rise and temperatures
warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft continues to bring transient shortwaves
through the weekend and into the early portions of next week. Strong
ridging out toward the southwestern United States remains in place
along with strong troughing over the Hudson Bay. Several chances for
precipitation through the end of the week, into the weekend, and
into next week.

Weak instability and lift on the back edge of the trough over the
Hudson Bay helped spark isolated showers and storms over the far
northern Red River Valley this morning. Over the past several hours
they have been on a downward trend in intensity. Further
precipitation is moving in from the James River Valley towards the
southern Red River Valley this morning.

...Independence Day Forecast...

A shortwave out of southern Saskatchewan will deepen as it moves
through central ND and into eastern SD this afternoon and evening.
On the northern and eastern edge of the wave we expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Rain will affect a majority of eastern ND
and northwestern MN, but the highest chances will be towards the
Devils Lake Basin, back down to the Sheyenne River Valley and for
areas along and south of I-94. Highest instability will be in the
southern Red River Valley and into west central MN. There is a less
than 10% chance for funnels to develop on the leading edge of the
upper level wave as it passes south of the area. This chance is for
areas in west central MN during the afternoon when we have peak
daytime heating. Precipitation chances begin to diminish in coverage
around 8-10pm as the upper level wave moves east of the area. Areas
along and north of Highway 2 in MN will have the lowest chance (20%)
for precipitation this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
temperatures will hover in the 70s across the region.

...Additional Chances for Precipitation...

There will be a chance Friday afternoon for hazy conditions as NAM
guidance has indicated the potential for smoke aloft. This is thanks
to the fires affecting portions of northern Canada. Upper level
winds from the northwesterly flow will help translate the smoke down
toward the northern plains Friday afternoon through early Saturday.

We will continue to be stuck in the northwesterly flow over the
weekend and into early next week. Multiple chances for precipitation
are possible, with the best chance on Saturday as a stronger wave
moves out of southern Canada. Instability is higher (2000-2500 J/kg
MUCAPE), shear is 20-25kts, and there is strong moisture return from
the south Saturday afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms are
possible, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Further chances for precipitation early next week. Clusters (70% of
them) have started to hint at the pattern starting to change end of
next week as the ridge out west begins to break down slowly and
shift eastward. Other clusters (30% of them) have the ridge
maintaining its strength longer. If the ridge where to slowly break
down next week and shift eastward we would start to warm to above
normal temperatures and dry out. The other scenario keeps us stuck
in the current pattern we are already in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all sites this afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing to the west of KDVL, as
well as south of KFAR. Coverage is expected to expand through
the afternoon, with VCTS possible across many areas. Guidance
has overproduced coverage thus far today, with most locations
seeing a delay in the onset of precipitation; however, we should
start to see an increase in activity by mid to late afternoon.
Heading into the evening hours, showers and storms move off to
the south and east, bringing VFR conditions and generally light
winds through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Spender
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Lynch