171
FXUS63 KFGF 020821
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur much of the
  next 7 days. For Thu-Fri the heaviest rainfall has shifted
  south. No severe weather is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...Synopsis...

500 mb low over Saskatchewan will move into Manitoba today and
then into northern Ontario Wednedsday. Several short waves
around this system will move through areas along the
International border the next 24-48 hours giving scattered
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening to northern
1/2 of the fcst area. Next upper wave for the 4th into Friday
looks to give heeaviest rainfall south of the area, with trends
in precipitation amounts continuing to lower in E ND/NW MN.


...Today...

Several 500 mb vortices seen rotating around the upper low this
early morning. One lifting northeast from north central ND into
south central MB, while main wave is lifting north into eastern
Manitoba and NW Ontario. Behind the main wave skies are clearing
but clouds return behind the wave moving out of north central
ND. Additional short waves, one located near Regina SK, will
move east along the Intl border this aftn. Enough heating today
to boost afternooon temps into the 70s. 500 mb temps cool to
around -11.5C from the current -9.5C and CAMs indicate isolated
to scattered t-storms forming early thru late afternoon mainly
northern 1/2 of the fcst area. With cooler air aloft small hail
would be possible from any thunderstorm. MUCAPES also reach the
1000-1200 j/kg range in the north RRV 21z-00z period.

...Wednesday...
Similar to today in that thought the main 500 mb low has moved
well northeast of the area lingering cold air aloft and sfc
heating with highs near 80 to generate isolated to scattered
t-storms in the aftn northern 1/2 of the fcst area. MUCAPES
reach near 1400 j/kg at 21z Wed.

...4th into the Weekend...
Our next more signifcant upper wave after this larger one
departs will move from British Columbia into western Montana and
then into South Dakota by 00z Fri. Models agree in having
highest rainfall to our south now....with axis of 1-2+ inch
rains more east central SD into southern MN Thu-Fri. Much
lighter rainfall in our area with amounts 0.75 to 1 inch far
south to under a tenth north. Severe weather is not anticpated.

Another fast moving short wave will move into North Dakota
Saturday giving shower and t-storm chances Sat-Sun.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast at TAF sites through 10Z, with
some lingering longer in MN. Additionally, some mist/drizzle/fog
will lower vsby into the 1-4SM range before 10Z as well. These
are the main hazards that will impact TAF sites through 12Z.

There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon Tuesday. Decided to leave out of the TAF for now due
to confidence in impacts to any particular TAF site remains
low.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ