273
FXUS63 KFGF 301752
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1252 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance for a strong thunderstorm to move into
  the Devils Lake basin late tonight.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Monday afternoon and evening across much of the forecast area,
  with a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms along
  and south of Interstate 94.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
  through mid week. A system may then bring numerous showers and
  thunderstorms to parts of the Northern Plains on Independence
  Day, with a low chance for severe thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A few cumulus clouds have formed around the Upper and Lower Red
Lakes, while some mid level clouds are getting closer to our
western FA border. Meanwhile, light winds remain east of the Red
River Valley, while southeast winds are picking up to 5 to 10
mph range along and west of the Valley. Overall, no changes to
the forecast are needed.

UPDATE
Issued at 951 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A very quiet start to the day, with no cloud cover and light
winds. Expecting some cloud cover to enter the western FA later
in the day and winds to pick up out of the south (but at most 10
to 15 mph west of the Red River Valley). So no impactful weather
today.

UPDATE
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Mostly clear skies this morning except for this small patch of
high based clouds over the southern valley. Winds are calm this
morning like expected however should start to pick up out of the
south this afternoon and tonight. Showers may start later than
originally expected and not arrived in the Devils lake Basin
until Monday morning at least.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...Synopsis...

Today, will be sunny throughout the day as the surface
high sits over the Northern Plains. With that high pressure system
winds should remain light and will slowly shift from the north to
the south this morning. As the high pressure moves off to the east
later this evening and into the overnight period we should start to
see the clouds move into the region from the west.

Monday, Our severe potential looks conditional as SPC has us in a
Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk for South east ND and small sliver of
West Central Minnesota close to the Red River. The rest of Eastern
North Dakota and Minnesota counties are in a Marginal Risk (level 1
out of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Our Bulk shear is enough (30-40
knots) to sustain any convection that develops in Central North
Dakota and moves into the valley. The mid level lapse rates are
between 7-8C moving in Central ND but become 6-7C as the storms move
into the valley. The better Cape profile also starts dwindling
moving from the Basin into the valley with out best CAPE and Lapse
Rates actually being in the further south which is why I believe SPC
put the slight in the southern portion of our area because its a
slightly better environment. The NAM soundings show us capped at the
lower levels presenting the idea of elevated hailers moving into our
area. NBM CWASP is at a 60 for the 50 percentile for our area and
CWASP90 percentile is 70-72 for Devils lake basin and 65 for the
valley. So its not that excited for our severe potential. Looking
through the progression for model soundings there might be some
drizzle showers as some sounding have us saturated at the lower
levels under that cap but my best guess for the severe potential
looks to be late afternoon and evening. If we do develop severe
thunderstorms I would think hail size would be around an inch and
maybe winds up to 60mph however with that cap its very likely the
winds will be sub severe and hail would be our biggest threat.

Tuesday through Friday

A broad trough pattern gives increasing chances for showers
throughout the week. I dont know if the farmers necessarily wants to
hear that or not but with the timing of these shortwaves we could
have brief isolated showers throughout the week.

Independence Day through the Holiday weekend could start out active
on Thursday as another trough moves through the area.
CSU-MLP showing an isolated severe risk on Thursday.
Deterministic QPF values seem robust, although NBM probs for over an
inch of QPF Thursday through Thursday night are around 10 percent at
this time. After this wave moves through there looks to be mainly
northwest flow which brings less of a chance for showers and
thunderstorms and some near normal temperatures.
If a ridge in the west can build more inland as some clusters
suggest then those chances for precip get lower while temps get
slightly warmer. Right now the forecast represents the NBM although
is worth monitoring...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Overall, a pretty low impact set of TAFs until late tonight.
The main thing worth mentioning is that a decaying convective
complex may reach portions of the FA around or after sunrise
Monday. Not too confident there will still be too much thunder
left with it, so have mentioned VCSH at a few sites for now. If
the complex remains a little stronger than anticipated, this
could be VCTS. If later shifts get a little more confident, they
can adjust this as need be. Guidance has also been showing
stratus (MVFR ceilings) overtaking the FA during the day Monday
(mostly beyond this TAF period). Went with an MVFR ceiling at
KDVL as a starter, but these MVFR ceilings may expand to other
areas as well, around or after 18z Monday. Finally, wind speeds
will really begin to increase slightly before or after sunrise.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...Godon