Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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734 FXUS63 KFGF 010251 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 951 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a low chance for a strong thunderstorm to move into the Devils Lake basin late tonight. - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening across much of the forecast area, with a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms along and south of Interstate 94. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through mid week. A system may then bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to parts of the Northern Plains on Independence Day, with a low chance for severe thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Starting to see more initiation on radar, but for now these look to be mainly showers with no lightning seen on GLM or otherwise. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Clouds are pushing in from our west, but the area we are monitoring for precipitation is further west in Montana. No changes to the forecast, forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...Synopsis... Brief 500mb ridging passes through the FA tonight, as the next 700mb shortwave pushes into northwest North Dakota on its heels. On Tuesday, it appears there will multiple waves across the Northern Plains around the parent 700mb low over central Manitoba. These various waves will pass through the FA until Tuesday night, when the low finally pushes into Ontario. There should be somewhat of a break on Wednesday, before the next wave arrives for Thursday into Friday morning. ...Late tonight... Storms are expected to fire over eastern Montana this evening, then congeal into a complex that should reach the Montana and western North Dakota border around 06z Monday. By that point, a low level jet of 40 to 50 knots should help sustain it as it moves east-northeast through sunrise. There is also decent 0-6km effective shear (40 to 50 knots as well), but overall instability should weaken as these storms reach the Devils Lake region late. The HREF still doesn`t show any UH tracks across North Dakota with these storms (they all remain in Montana). Despite that, SPC hasn`t changed their outlook area, which shows a marginal risk for severe storms across the western Devils Lake region (and western North Dakota). Since we have been messaging a low chance for a strong storm, see no reason to change that. ...Monday afternoon and evening... Parameters get pretty muddy for this period. Per the paragraph above, a weakening convective complex should be moving into eastern North Dakota (and more so northeast North Dakota) Monday morning. Therefore there will be extensive cloud cover across the FA to start the day. Moisture values will only increase, with surface dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s along and west of the Valley, and precipitable water values climbing over 1.50 inches. However, the main surface features look like they will remain over the western Dakotas, closer to the main 700mb wave. Despite that, the low level jet looks like it will flare up again during the day hours, and even strengthen to 50 to 55 knots along and east of the Valley. Overall, this looks pretty disjointed. Models are showing it remaining cloudy, with the clouds actually lowering in height during the day, so good instability would be lacking. Once again, any sustained UH tracks per the HREF stay to the west and south of this FA. Other than being cloudy, Monday looks windy as well, and would remain on the cool side. ...Mid week... As mentioned above, another good 700mb shortwave looks to cross through the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday morning. The highest precipitation chances may arrive Thursday afternoon and evening, putting a damper on July 4th activities. This is still a good 4 days out, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Winds will remain higher overnight into Monday, around 10 - 15 knots sustained. As the sun rises, this will increase to 15 - 20 knots sustained with gusts up to 30 knots. Ceilings will lower into MVFR and eventually IFR in some locations with the eastward movement of precipitation. Expect rain to be the main challenge Monday, with TS possible, but confidence in location not high enough yet to include. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...AH DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...AH