Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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383 FXUS62 KFFC 290600 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Continued chaotic CU field across North and Central GA at this time. Embedded spotty showers will transitions to spotty thunderstorms this afternoon with daytime heating. Lift is currently provided by the slowly moving mid level trough which will continue to move out of the area through tomorrow (trending forcing downward on it`s way). Have also trended thunderstorms a little later than previous forecasts due to the persistent cloud coverage from this morning. Precipitation accumulations from this will be light, with locally higher amounts from thunderstorms. PWATs near 2.0" will mean efficient rain makers, however this morning`s sounding showed significant dry air above 600 mb. Thunderstorms will likely struggle to develop significant depth this afternoon due to dry air entrainment. Water loading in thunderstorms may be enough to develop gusty outflow which may help to initiate/develop further thunderstorms. Conditions tonight could see continued showers through most of the overnight hours. These will be spotty at best. Tomorrow morning will be similar to this morning with low clouds and humid conditions. Thunderstorms may develop once again by the late morning tomorrow, however reduced dynamic has see a downtrend in PoPs within CAMs. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will mean conditions are steamy. Heat indices will reach 100 to 104 for all but the higher elevations of North GA. SM && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Sunday into early Monday, a long-wave upr trough approaching the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic will briefly amplify the upr ridge over the Southern Plains. As this occurs, energy along with a weak frontal boundary sagging south will slide across the Southeast region resulting in a fairly good chance for scattered to numerous showers/storms across the area. Drier air works into the area Monday and Tuesday as the upr high starts to stretch and build back to the east. After a brief reprieve from the humidity, look for it to return by the middle of the week - just in time for 4th of July. Heat Index values on Sunday could peak between 100-105F for many locations, with an area of 105+F possible across parts of east-central and southeast GA. Thursday (July 4th) and Friday, models showing the area on the east side of a broad upr high extending from west Texas to just off the South Carolina coast. More active weather (jet energy) appears to remain north of the area - across the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, however some of this could dip down across GA by the end of the week. At this point, isolated to scattered diurnally-driven convection can be expected with warm temps (running 5-10F degrees above normal). DJN.83 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Shower activity continues from the southern Atlanta metro south to between CSG and MCN. These showers continue to move N into a less favorable environment. Additionally, instability across the area is decreasing. Will continue VCSH for ATL for the next several hours. Low cigs are expected to develop once again toward daybreak (along with patchy, mostly light fog near recent rain areas), with cig heights of around 600-800 feet. Low clouds will lift and thin later this morning, followed by afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity. Light winds will become mostly SW during the day. Wind speeds will remain light outside of heavier showers and storms. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium for morning low cigs and vsbys along with start time of afternoon tstms. High for other elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 95 72 92 / 30 60 40 30 Atlanta 76 93 75 93 / 40 60 30 20 Blairsville 69 87 67 87 / 40 70 20 20 Cartersville 73 93 71 93 / 40 70 20 10 Columbus 75 94 75 98 / 30 70 40 40 Gainesville 75 93 73 91 / 40 60 20 20 Macon 74 95 74 95 / 30 60 40 50 Rome 74 94 73 94 / 30 70 10 10 Peachtree City 73 94 72 94 / 30 60 30 20 Vidalia 76 96 76 93 / 30 70 50 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....DJN.83 AVIATION...SEC