896
FXUS62 KFFC 051742
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
142 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024


...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Key Messages:

  - Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11am until 8 PM tonight.
    Heat indices of 105 degrees our higher will be possible
    within the advisory.

  - A front approaching the area will bring increased rain and tstorm
    chances Friday and Saturday.

Forecast:

For early this morning, watching areas of smoke and haze that have
stuck around after the Independence Day activities. Smoke provides
increased ground level cloud condensation nuclei that when combined
with our high surface moisture can help generate haze or even some
fog. We are seeing this especially in locations where rain fell
today, including portions of metro Atlanta. This should fade pretty
quickly as festivities have concluded in most locations.

A trough with embedded shortwave will move across the midwest today
pushing a "cold" front towards the CWA (it`s more of a "drier air
front at the surface given the modified nature of the air mass).
That front looks to be the focus of some convection starting in and
around TN and northern AL that will move into northern GA into the
afternoon. Otherwise, it`s summer in GA and with dewpoints in the
70s, surface temps in the 90s, PWATs of 2+", and little in the upper
levels to suppress convection, afternoon thunderstorms will
likely pop across north and central GA. These may continue a bit
into the overnight hours given some additional forcing of the
front moving into the CWA.

Heat is the primary story. The above dewpoints and surface temps
will lead to heat indices surging into the 100s and above 105
degrees in many areas. Highest confidence in seeing these conditions
is in central Georgia, where rainfall chances are a bit lower.
Lowest confidence is in northwest GA, where rain and thunderstorms
may begin early enough to prevent current forecast high temperatures
from being achieved. See the heat advisory for more information
about precautionary and preparedness actions.

Severe potential is low but not zero. Forecast SBCAPE values are
2000-2500 J/kg by the afternoon hours. Shear is low but does
approach 25 kts from 0-6 km in parts of NW GA. Some light
organization of storms may be possible, though it would be short
lived. A few strong storms could occur, and won`t rule out a severe
thunderstorm if a storm gets everything lined up just right. Primary
threat would be strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Heavy
rainfall will also be possible especially given high PWATs with WPC
highlighting a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for flash flooding.

Saturday, precip chances will likely depend on how far cold front
moves into CWA. Hires guidance is mixed on progression, but
currently best chances of rain look to be in central Georgia. Have
left some rain chances in the NW mainly to reflect uncertainty, but
if drier air has moved in, rain and thunderstorm chances will be
lower. Heat will likely still be in place in portions of central
Georgia, and heat products will likely be necessary again.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A stationary front draped across the area will provide a continued
focus for diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
Given the position of the front, the highest PoPs will be favored
along and south of I-85. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible
given high PWAT values of 2-2.5". Meanwhile, temperatures will
remain on the hot side outside of any cooling influence of showers
and thunderstorms on Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 90s and
continued dewpoints in the 70s south of the front will provide for
heat index values over 100 degrees.

A summery pattern will remain in place through the coming week with
generally hot and humid conditions persisting. Persistent broad
troughing situated across the Great Lakes into the Midwest into
midweek and ridging across the western Atlantic will keep the
forecast area in a moist southwest flow aloft. Thus, elevated
diurnally enhanced PoPs will remain in the forecast. Continued very
moist PWATs within the tropical airmass will maintain the risk for
locally heavy rainfall. Persistent high temperatures in the low to
mid 90s amid the very moist airmass will keep things feeling rather
sauna-esque with heat index values over 100 degrees for many of us
each afternoon.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will remain the main aviation concern
through 06Z Saturday. Impacts, including brief visibility
restrictions and erratic winds, are anticipated all the the TAF
sites. Isolated storms could occur (<15% chance) between 06Z and
18Z Saturday. Winds will generally be from the southwest through
00Z, though storms will lead to variable winds in areas. Areas of
IFR/MVFR ceilings are possible between 06Z and 15Z Saturday.
Patchy fog is possible between 09Z and 14Z Saturday.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Overall confidence in the ATL TAF is moderate.
Moderate confidence in the wind, ceiling and visibility forecasts.
Low confidence in the thunderstorm timing.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  94  73  90 /  50  40  30  70
Atlanta         76  94  74  93 /  60  30  10  60
Blairsville     69  87  67  87 /  50  30  10  60
Cartersville    73  92  70  94 /  40  20  10  50
Columbus        76  95  75  95 /  60  60  30  70
Gainesville     75  94  74  90 /  50  30  20  60
Macon           75  95  74  92 /  50  60  40  70
Rome            74  93  71  95 /  40  20  10  40
Peachtree City  74  94  71  93 /  60  30  10  60
Vidalia         76  95  75  91 /  20  60  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011>013-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Albright