019
FXUS62 KFFC 011857
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

An upper level high pressure center remains centered over northeast
Texas, with ridging extending across much of the Southeast and into
the Great Lakes region. A weak cold front is advancing slowly
southward into the forecast area as surface high pressure associated
with the ridge advances eastward. Drier and more stable air has
begun to filter into far northwest Georgia. However, candidness
ahead of the front remain very hot and humid, with highs expected
to be in the mid to upper 90s. With dewpoints remaining in the 70s
ahead of the frontal boundary, heat index values in excess of 100
have already been observed in locations along and south of I-20
this afternoon. Furthermore, heat indices of 105-108 are expected
across portions of central Georgia during the peak heating hours,
and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for this area.

At the time of this writing, isolated showers and thunderstorms have
begun to develop roughly along and south of an axis from Athens to
Macon. Additional convection is expected to develop, primarily in
central and east Georgia, through the remainder of the afternoon
considering ample instability ahead of the frontal boundary. With
SBCAPE values as high as 3000 J/kg, fairly steep low-level lapse
rates, and DCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg, a few stronger storms will
be possible, which will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.
As the cold front advances further into the area and the
aforementioned surface high advances further east into New York,
surface ridging will advance into northeast Georgia and advance
southwestward. Isentropic lift near the leading edge of this surface
ridge could lead to the development of some isolated showers late
tonight. Some hi-res model guidance similarly continues to indicate
the potential for nocturnal showers near and south of the Atlanta
metro area during the overnight hours, as well.

By Tuesday morning, the frontal boundary is expected to stall in
south-central Georgia. Temperatures are forecast to be milder behind
the front throughout the day. Low temperatures on Tuesday morning
are expected to mainly range from the upper 60s to low 70s in north
Georgia and in the low to mid 70s in central Georgia. Lows in the
higher elevations of far northeast Georgia could even drop as low as
the upper 50s. Furthermore, high temperatures will mainly range from
the mid 80s to near 90. Dewpoints will be mainly in the mid to upper
50s roughly northeast of the Atlanta metro area, and in the 60s to
the south. Dewpoints in the low 70s may linger in the far southern
tier of counties near the vicinity of the stalled front. The
relatively milder, drier conditions will keep heat index values from
reaching as high as we`ve seen the last few days, and heat headlines
will mercifully not be needed. Minimal rain chances are expected on
Tuesday along in north Georgia, where the lowest dewpoints are
forecast. In central Georgia, there will be a gradient of PoPs that
will increase further south with closer vicinity to the stalled
front and with increasing low-level moisture. At their highest, low-
end likely PoPs are forecast across the southern tier of the
forecast area during the afternoon, then diminishing after sunset.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

At a glance:

-Afternoon thunderstorms and heat will be the main story through the
long term.

-A weak low pressure will bring a band of showers and thunderstorms
to northern GA on Friday afternoon.

Not a lot of changes to the forecast this time around. Temperatures
will remain largely in the 90s through the forecast period with lows
in the 70s.

The biggest feature through the long term will be a front that moves
in from the NW on Friday afternoon. The associated upper level
trough is relatively flat considering the parent low will move
through the Great Lakes region. As a result, severe weather seem
unlikely but a few thunderstorms will be possible. Rainfall totals
don`t appear like they`ll help ease any of the drought conditions
we`re falling into with totals being less than a tenth.

The front is quick to move out, and doesn`t seem to want to provide
any significant temp relief either. By the time the weekend rolls
around, we`ll be back in the 90s with heat indices in the
triple digits.


Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Conditions are expected to remain mostly VFR through the remainder
of the afternoon, with a cu field between 050-060 across much of
the forecast area. Scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon may bring
brief periods of MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities to both MCN
and CSG, warranting a TEMPO for TSRA for both sites. Isolated SHRA
may be possible in the ATL metro sites this evening and tonight,
warranting VCSH from 02-09Z. Lower clouds are forecast for the
morning hours on Tuesday, with MVFR ceilings possible at the ATL
metro sites and IFR ceilings at MCN/CSG. Winds this afternoon are
expected to be N to NE at 5-10 kts, shifting to E overnight into
Tuesday. Wind speeds are expected to increase to 10-14 kts by
early Tuesday morning, with gusts of 20-25 kts on Tuesday
afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  85  68  90 /  10  10  20  20
Atlanta         71  86  71  91 /  20  10  10  20
Blairsville     63  82  63  85 /  10   0  10  20
Cartersville    70  88  69  93 /  10  10  10  20
Columbus        74  89  74  93 /  30  30  20  40
Gainesville     69  85  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
Macon           71  88  71  93 /  40  30  20  40
Rome            71  90  71  93 /   0  10  10  30
Peachtree City  70  87  70  91 /  20  10  10  20
Vidalia         73  87  74  92 /  60  50  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ059-060-069>073-
078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...King