Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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601 FXUS62 KFFC 011754 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 154 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 353 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 At a glance: - Hot temperatures again today across the S half of the area with a Heat Advisory in effect. - Lower rain chances across N GA and portions of central GA today through Tuesday. An upper level high pressure center is presently located over NE TX with a ridge extending ESE to the FL Panhandle and SW GA. At the surface, a weak cold front over extreme N GA will sag S across the County Warning Area (CWA) today. Drier and more stable air will filter into the area today. Shower and thunderstorm activity pressed S overnight, with the greatest coverage over the E portion of the area. A few of these storms were strong, and some locally heavy rains occurred SE of Macon. As of this writing, most rain has cleared the area. Isolated showers are possible this afternoon from NE GA into the Atlanta metro area. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be found SE of Macon. Heat will be a concern again today, with heat indices of 105-108 across much of the southern half of the area (S of the Atlanta metro area). Another Heat Advisory has been issued for that area. Lower heat indices are possible across the E portion of the advisory area late this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop. Some of the high resolution model guidance is developing some nocturnal showers near and S of the Atlanta metro area tonight. This activity appears to be coincident with some weak isentropic lift near the nose of a surface ridge pushing SW into the area behind the surface front. Have kept isolated activity into tonight in those areas. Low temperatures tonight will range from near 60 across the NE mountains to the lower 70s across the S and in the Atlanta urban heat island. A gradient of PoPs from N to S will continue on Tuesday, with mostly dry weather expected from the Atlanta metro area northward ranging to low end likely PoPs across the extreme S. Temperatures will be milder across the area on Tuesday, with highs mostly in the 80s (even some mid 70s across the NE ridgetops). Easterly winds will increase late Monday night into Tuesday, with some gusts over 20 mph across the N half of the area. The lower temperatures and breezier conditions should make for a nice reprieve from the summer heat. /SEC && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 353 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The frontal boundary that is expected to pass through Georgia Monday and Tuesday should be just south of our area on the GA/FL border which will in turn keep rain chances more limited to central Georgia just north of the boundary. PWATs are currently forecast to be between 1.5-2" for Wednesday which could result in efficient rain producers with any showers or storms that form. Considering the 2.5- 3 inches of rainfall central Georgia received tonight, that area will need to be watched closely for any flooding concerns over the next couple of days. Looking at a break down of the 500 mb ridging over our area as the high pressure shifts eastward and a trough begins to deepen into the mid MS valley into Friday. As this trough moves further eastward and the associated surface low moves into the Ohio valley, a cold front looks to move into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday increasing rain chances over north Georgia Friday into Saturday. The front then looks to sag southward over the area into Sunday evening which is reflected in the increased rain chances through the weekend. Models are indicating PWATs at 2"+ over the area into the weekend, so again any storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers and we`ll have to keep an eye on the flooding potential although this is still at day 7. Outside of the two main boundaries moving through, daily scattered rain chances can be expected mainly due to diurnal heating over the area. Temps are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend and with the moist airmass (dewpoints in the mid 70s), heat indices will need to be monitored for potential heat advisories for the July 4th weekend. Hernandez && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Conditions are expected to remain mostly VFR through the remainder of the afternoon, with a cu field between 050-060 across much of the forecast area. Scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon may bring brief periods of MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities to both MCN and CSG, warranting a TEMPO for TSRA for both sites. Isolated SHRA may be possible in the ATL metro sites this evening and tonight, warranting VCSH from 02-09Z. Lower clouds are forecast for the morning hours on Tuesday, with MVFR ceilings possible at the ATL metro sites and IFR ceilings at MCN/CSG. Winds this afternoon are expected to be N to NE at 5-10 kts, shifting to E overnight into Tuesday. Wind speeds are expected to increase to 10-14 kts by early Tuesday morning, with gusts of 20-25 kts on Tuesday afternoon. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 87 68 89 / 10 10 20 30 Atlanta 72 87 72 90 / 20 10 10 30 Blairsville 63 82 63 85 / 10 0 10 30 Cartersville 70 89 70 92 / 10 10 10 40 Columbus 74 87 73 92 / 30 30 20 50 Gainesville 68 85 69 88 / 10 10 10 30 Macon 72 86 71 92 / 40 30 20 40 Rome 72 90 72 92 / 0 10 10 30 Peachtree City 70 87 70 91 / 20 10 10 30 Vidalia 72 86 73 91 / 60 50 30 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ059-060-069>073- 078>086-089>098-102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...King