485
FXUS62 KFFC 020613
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
213 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

An upper level high pressure center remains centered over northeast
Texas, with ridging extending across much of the Southeast and into
the Great Lakes region. A weak cold front is advancing slowly
southward into the forecast area as surface high pressure associated
with the ridge advances eastward. Drier and more stable air has begun
to filter into far northwest Georgia. However, candidness ahead of
the front remain very hot and humid, with highs expected to be in the
mid to upper 90s. With dewpoints remaining in the 70s ahead of the
frontal boundary, heat index values in excess of 100 have already
been observed in locations along and south of I-20 this afternoon.
Furthermore, heat indices of 105-108 are expected across portions of
central Georgia during the peak heating hours, and a Heat Advisory
remains in effect for this area.

At the time of this writing, isolated showers and thunderstorms have
begun to develop roughly along and south of an axis from Athens to
Macon. Additional convection is expected to develop, primarily in
central and east Georgia, through the remainder of the afternoon
considering ample instability ahead of the frontal boundary. With
SBCAPE values as high as 3000 J/kg, fairly steep low-level lapse
rates, and DCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg, a few stronger storms will
be possible, which will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.
As the cold front advances further into the area and the
aforementioned surface high advances further east into New York,
surface ridging will advance into northeast Georgia and advance
southwestward. Isentropic lift near the leading edge of this surface
ridge could lead to the development of some isolated showers late
tonight. Some hi-res model guidance similarly continues to indicate
the potential for nocturnal showers near and south of the Atlanta
metro area during the overnight hours, as well.

By Tuesday morning, the frontal boundary is expected to stall in
south-central Georgia. Temperatures are forecast to be milder behind
the front throughout the day. Low temperatures on Tuesday morning are
expected to mainly range from the upper 60s to low 70s in north
Georgia and in the low to mid 70s in central Georgia. Lows in the
higher elevations of far northeast Georgia could even drop as low as
the upper 50s. Furthermore, high temperatures will mainly range from
the mid 80s to near 90. Dewpoints will be mainly in the mid to upper
50s roughly northeast of the Atlanta metro area, and in the 60s to
the south. Dewpoints in the low 70s may linger in the far southern
tier of counties near the vicinity of the stalled front. The
relatively milder, drier conditions will keep heat index values from
reaching as high as we`ve seen the last few days, and heat headlines
will mercifully not be needed. Minimal rain chances are expected on
Tuesday along in north Georgia, where the lowest dewpoints are
forecast. In central Georgia, there will be a gradient of PoPs that
will increase further south with closer vicinity to the stalled front
and with increasing low-level moisture. At their highest, low- end
likely PoPs are forecast across the southern tier of the forecast
area during the afternoon, then diminishing after sunset.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

At a glance:

-Afternoon thunderstorms and heat will be the main story through the
long term.

-A weak low pressure will bring a band of showers and thunderstorms
to northern GA on Friday afternoon.

Not a lot of changes to the forecast this time around. Temperatures
will remain largely in the 90s through the forecast period with lows
in the 70s.

The biggest feature through the long term will be a front that moves
in from the NW on Friday afternoon. The associated upper level
trough is relatively flat considering the parent low will move
through the Great Lakes region. As a result, severe weather seem
unlikely but a few thunderstorms will be possible. Rainfall totals
don`t appear like they`ll help ease any of the drought conditions
we`re falling into with totals being less than a tenth.

The front is quick to move out, and doesn`t seem to want to provide
any significant temp relief either. By the time the weekend rolls
around, we`ll be back in the 90s with heat indices in the triple
digits.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A few showers continue around all terminals except AHN. Clouds are
will continue to thicken and lower at most locations toward daybreak,
with MVFR cigs possible. Cigs will lift again through the morning
hours. Thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon at MCN and
CSG. Winds will be easterly through the period. Gusts to around 20
knots are expected late tonight into Tuesday morning, with wind
speeds decreasing this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low to medium for morning cigs, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  90  71  95 /  20  20  10  30
Atlanta         71  91  74  95 /  10  20  10  30
Blairsville     63  85  67  88 /  10  20  10  50
Cartersville    69  93  72  95 /  10  20  10  40
Columbus        74  93  75  94 /  20  40  10  40
Gainesville     69  88  72  94 /  10  20  10  40
Macon           71  93  72  95 /  20  40  10  30
Rome            71  93  75  96 /  10  30  10  50
Peachtree City  70  91  72  94 /  10  20  10  30
Vidalia         74  92  73  95 /  30  70  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...SEC