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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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219 FXUS62 KFFC 280613 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 213 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Thunderstorms continue to drift northward out of central GA along a sfc low assisted seabreeze. Thunderstorms are light and scattered along the line, though a rumble of thunder here and there is likely with these. Another broken line of small thunderstorms is moving south of I-20 along the boundary formed by cloud coverage this morning. These will likely continue to drift south until colliding with the southern line. Further thunderstorm development is likely between the lines as they near each other. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible across the rest of the area through the evening hours given our weak CAPE and assistance from the passing mid level trough. Precipitation values will likely remain below 0.5" in any place though locally higher amounts may be possible. Thunderstorms should begin to clear out with sunset as the daytime energy falls. A few showers may be possible overnight given the increased PWATS near 2.0" and weak lift. Scattered thunderstorms will likely pick back up late tomorrow morning. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be notably cooler than the past several days. Cloud coverage and precipitation will be the main drivers of this. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s and low 90s. SM && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Extended begins with a broad flat 500mb ridge axis extending from TX eastward across the SE into the Atlantic with an implied weakness in that axis across the SE states. The upper level system analyzed over AL today drifts south then northeastward across N. GA on Saturday all while continuing to weaken and become more diffuse. NBM guidance is aggressive with pops on Sat with 80-90 pops across N GA which may in part be due to 1) the lack of an suppressing ridge and 2) whats left of the remnant low. Deterministic runs wouldn`t necessarily support likely to def pops but do not have strong confidence to lower either given the factors in play including 2"+ pwats to work with. Additionally, what looked like a potential heat advisory kind of day yesterday (for Saturday) is now backed off considerably due to the expectation of more clouds/showers around. End result is lower max T/apparent T values. Will have to watch trends going into Saturday since Dpt values will be high thus trends in lower pops would result in higher apparent T values. By Sunday going into Monday, 500mb and 700mb ridge begin to amplify to the west across the ArklaTex region and extend east into the SE US. Pops on Sunday..for now are lower which when combined with mid 70 dpts will make for 105+ apparent T values...particularly SE zones. But similar to how the trend for Saturday has gone, will need to watch trends for clouds/shower chances as it seems to be the big heat advisory buster in recent years. During the day Monday a front sinks south on the eastern periphery of the ridge dragging some drier air with it into the state. Guidance is mixed on how far south the drier air pushes but it should result in a decent gradient of pops from lower values north to higher south across the frontal zone. Temps still warmer than average area wide, but again could be influenced heavily by showers/storms. Gradual warming trend Tue and Wed as upper ridge builds in across the SE states. Pops return to more climo to slightly below climo values. At the same time, attention may become more focused on 95L and where it may end up going as it should be somewhere in the Central Caribbean about this time. Strength/breakdown of the ridge over the SE and newly developing ridge over the western US will ultimately have an impact on whether the system turns northward or continues WNW. Stay tuned. 30 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 152 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Skies are currently VFR at all TAF sites. Low clouds are expected to develop and lower toward daybreak at most locations, with a period of 600-900 ft cigs possible. Isolated showers will continue near a quasi-stationary front N of the Atlanta area terminals. Some patchy fog is possible around the area as well, particularly in recent rain areas and near bodies of water. Cigs will lift and thin a bit later this morning, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected. Light, mostly SE winds this morning will pick up a bit during the day, with directions veering toward S. Will keep easterly component at ATL through the day. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium on IFR cigs and thunderstorm timing. High on remaining elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 72 91 75 96 / 40 70 30 60 Atlanta 74 91 75 94 / 40 70 30 60 Blairsville 69 84 70 88 / 50 90 30 80 Cartersville 73 91 72 94 / 40 80 30 70 Columbus 74 93 75 96 / 40 60 30 70 Gainesville 74 89 75 93 / 50 80 30 60 Macon 73 94 75 96 / 40 60 20 70 Rome 74 93 75 94 / 30 80 30 70 Peachtree City 72 92 73 94 / 40 60 20 60 Vidalia 74 95 76 96 / 40 60 40 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...SEC