305
FXUS62 KFFC 050606
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
206 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Key Messages:

 - Isolated thunderstorms will remain a concern for Independence
   Day celebrations this evening.

 - A Heat Advisory has been issued for Friday due to expected heat
   index values over 105 degrees.

 - A frontal boundary should lead to more widespread
   thunderstorms in northern and central Georgia Friday afternoon
   and evening.

This Evening and Tonight:

Satellite imagery indicated a broad cumulus field over northern
and central Georgia with the most vigorous cumulus over the
western half of the state. Isolated showers and thunderstorms were
ongoing within the cumulus field (mainly along and west of
Interstate 75). Narrow CAPE profiles and mid level lapse rates
below 5.5 C/km should significantly limit the potential for
stronger convection this evening. Thus severe weather is not
anticipated. Frequent lighting and occasional wind gusts in the 25
to 35 mph range could still be hazardous for anyone celebrating
the Independence day the holiday outdoors.

Heat will remain a concern through this evening and a Heat
Advisory remains in place through 7 PM this evening. Where
thunderstorms and rain showers don`t occur, heat index values
should remain at or above 100 degrees through around 7 PM.
Conditions should improve after 7 PM, but conditions will remain
warm and humid and impacts from the heat could linger, especially
for anyone who has spent the entire day out in the heat.

Concerns for Friday:

A weak cold front will push into the region on Friday. Ahead of
the front hot and humid conditions will be in place across
Georgia. Temperatures in the mid and upper 90s should combine with
dewpoints in the mid 70s to produce afternoon heat indices in the
100 to 108 degree range. A Heat Advisory has been issued for a
large part of northern and central Georgia for Friday afternoon.
Confidence in advisory criteria (heat index of 105 or higher)
being met is highest in east central Georgia. The Heat Advisory
for northwest Georgia is lower confidence due to the potential for
clouds and storms that may disrupt the afternoon heating.

The aforementioned front will serve as a focal point for
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon/evening. Any storms that
from along the front may be efficient rain producers due to
unusually high PW values (at or above 2 inches and above the 90th
percentile for early July). Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per
hour will be possible with the most vigorous storms. Dry ambient
conditions and the limited scope of the more vigorous convection
should keep any flooding threat localized. Severe weather is not
anticipated due to modest mid level lapse rates (5.5 C/km or less)
and a lack of effective shear (15 kt or less).

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Over the Weekend:

The aforementioned cold front should stall over the region this
weekend. This will allow thunderstorms chances to linger in the
region. The rainfall potential will be highest during the
afternoon and evening hours when diurnal heating will be
maximized. There may however be sufficient low level support for
some isolated rainfall during the overnight and early morning
hours each day. As with Friday, a lack of appreciable shear and
poor mid level lapse rates should limit the potential for stronger
storms.

Heat will remain a potential concern over the weekend for
locations south of the frontal boundary and free of widespread
cloud cover. This largely means that we are monitoring portions of
east central Georgia for potential Heat Advisory conditions.
Though our forecast heat indices have declined by 1 to 3 degrees
with the latest forecast update, there remains a chance that Heat
Advisories will be need on Saturday (60% chance) or Sunday (20%
chance) in east central Georgia.

Next Week:

The large scale weather patter next week should feature troughing
over the north central U.S. and upper level ridge over the
Western Atlantic. This pattern should favor weak subsidence aloft
and keep surface moisture (surface dewpoints between 68 and 75
degree) in place across the Georgia, resulting in continued 20-50
percent chances for thunderstorms each afternoon. In short it is
summer and we will be in a very summer like pattern. Temperatures
will cool some early in the week when a few places may see
afternoon highs fail to reach 90 degrees. Then a warming trend is
favored by the GEFS and EPS as the week progresses, with afternoon
highs returning to the low and mid 90s by Wednesday.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR to start TAF period. Monitoring vsby at most sites with FU/HZ
issues in some locations thanks to tonight`s festivities. Thinking
these issues should clear up in next few hours, though thanks to
rain in metro ATL, possible that effects may linger or additional
HZ or FG could continue to develop. Some MVFR cig development
possible in metro sites this morning as well, though low
confidence, highlighted by FEW/SCT mention in 11Z line. TSRA
possible Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches. Low cigs
possible Saturday morning as moisture continues to return to area
ahead of front. Winds will be west side through period, moving SW
to WNW as front approaches, 4-8 kts.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence cigs/vsby each morning. High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  94  73  89 /  50  70  40  70
Atlanta         75  92  74  92 /  60  60  20  60
Blairsville     69  87  66  87 /  60  60  20  50
Cartersville    73  91  69  95 /  60  50  10  50
Columbus        76  95  76  94 /  50  80  30  70
Gainesville     75  92  73  90 /  50  60  30  60
Macon           75  94  73  92 /  40  80  40  80
Rome            74  93  70  95 /  60  40  10  40
Peachtree City  73  93  71  93 /  60  70  30  60
Vidalia         76  95  75  92 /  30  60  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for GAZ001>005-011>013-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-
078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Lusk