096
FXUS64 KEWX 051835
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
135 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A front is currently positioned from near Stephenville to San Angelo
and the boundary will continue to drop southward into our region
from this afternoon into tonight. There is already some isolated to
scattered convection along the boundary and this activity looks to
continue to drop southward towards and across portions of the Hill
Country from later today into tonight. With loss of daytime heating,
there would likely be a lull from the overnight through early
Saturday before the boundary will refire with scattered convection
into and through Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon looks to be
more active across our region compared to the activity expected from
this afternoon into this evening. With a weak flow aloft and PWATS
up to around the 1.8 to 2.l inches, there will be pockets of locally
heavy rainfall in association with this convection. As a result of
the slow storm motion, some heavier pockets with 1+ inch should
remain on the isolated end. WPC continues to highlight a level 1 of
4 risk to exceed flash flood guidance across the northern half of
our region during Saturday. Some gusty winds up to around 50 mph
could be possible with the convection as well. Activity wanes into
and through Saturday night as the front lifts northward and with the
loss of daytime heating.

The temperatures will continue to run generally near to slightly
above average through the short term but there will be some
instances of heat relief for locations behind the front/outflow
boundaries and with any additional rain cooled air. Heat indices
still peak above 100 degrees across many areas over central and
eastern portions of the region but values are expected to stay shy
of reaching heat advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Complicated. That would be the best word to describe the long term
period. All attention turns to Beryl as the storm begins its final
approach the the southern/central Texas coast near sunrise Monday.
As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the
storm remains a Category 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of
85mph, but is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before emerging
out over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. The forecast continues to
trend further to the north and east with Beryl as it defies the odds
on intensity guidance in the face of moderate to strong shear from a
TUTT low situated over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Confidence
continues to increase in the forecast path for Beryl, but
uncertainty still exists, especially within the last 12-24 hours
before landfall.

The Subtropical High will already be sliding eastward into the
southeastern CONUS at the start of the long term period.
Additionally, an unusually strong trough for early July standards,
some 1-2 sigma below the mean will dig further south into the
Southern Plains late Sunday into Monday, and act to pull Beryl
northward on approach to the Texas coast. Exactly when Beryl takes
this jog to the north is the greatest question mark at the moment.
The longer Beryl remains over the bath water of the Gulf, the
stronger it is likely to get as vertical shear starts to weaken over
the next 24 hours. For now, the latest forecast calls for Beryl to
be a Category 1 hurricane at landfall somewhere between Brownsville
and Corpus Christi, but that could continue to shift further north
if current trends continue. Tropical wind hazards are looking
increasingly likely, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor
Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. With regard to the heavy
rainfall threat, any locations that are on the eastern side of the
circulation will see the heaviest rains, with the latest 12Z GEFS
and 06Z ECMWF Ens coming into slightly better agreement on the
placement of the heaviest precip, with a swath of perhaps 2-4" with
locally higher amounts, particularly over the Coastal Plains. A
localized tornado threat may also materialize as Beryl makes
landfall, mainly in the right front quadrant. For now, the Storm
Prediction Center does not have any areas highlighted for a tornado
threat Monday or Tuesday, but would expect as confidence increases
in the track of Beryl, we`ll get placed in some sort of risk area.
With regard to the flooding rain threat, WPC places a good chunk of
the CWA in a level 2 of 4 risk (Slight) for excessive rainfall both
Monday and Tuesday. We`ll have to see how things play out, but if
Beryl comes in weaker, it could get caught in no-man`s land and take
some time to exit our coverage area. That would result in continued
rounds of rainfall through Wednesday.

Once Beryl is out of the picture, things remain rather active, at
least by July standards. Daily rain chances look to continue as high
PWATs between 1.5-2" remain in play over the EWX coverage area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Isolated showers and convection will be possible across the Hill
Country this afternoon as a front, currently near Stephenville to
San Angelo, slides southward with help from any associated outflow
boundaries. However, activity should stay to the north of the TAF
sites through tonight. VFR flight conditions persist towards and
through this evening at all TAF sites. Some low MVFR stratus will
establish at KAUS beyond 11Z Saturday morning while VFR conditions
with patchy scattered low clouds at the remaining TAF sites. The
frontal boundary and any associated outflow continues sliding
southward into Saturday and should result in scattered convection
across the region. Have added PROB30s for KAUS and KSAT through
Saturday afternoon as a result. Winds remain light, generally of
around 12 knots, or less. The winds may shift and become variable
at times pending the position of the front and with any of the
outflow boundaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78  97  76  97 /  20  40  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  96  75  96 /  10  40  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  97  75  97 /  10  40  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            75  93  74  95 /  20  40  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 101  79 102 /  10  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  94  75  95 /  20  40  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  75  98 /  10  30  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  96  74  96 /  10  40  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  95  76  95 /  10  40  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  97  77  97 /  10  30  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  99  77  98 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Brady