Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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147 FXUS64 KEWX 260646 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 146 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The upper level ridge remains centered northwest of the area today. Outside of a stray shower or two across the Coastal Plains, most of the area will remain dry and hot today. Far to the north of the area, we will be watching for a potential complex of storms this afternoon moving south around the ridge through Arkansas. Outflow from these storms may continue south and southwest tonight and into early Thursday morning through northeast Texas. We will keep an eye out for the possible outflow making into into the northeast forecast area overnight and Thursday. The vast majority of the guidance dissipates the convection well northeast of the area, however a few HREF members generate isolated showers and storms across Central Texas and the northeast forecast area during the day on Thursday. Global models indicate the ridge building back east over the area Thursday, which would help to limit this possibility. We saw more locations near and east of I-35 reach heat advisory criteria yesterday. With temperatures at or slightly warmer today, we will continue to see locations near the I-35 corridor and across the Coastal Plains into heat advisory criteria this afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for this area. In addition, a few locations along the Rio Grande may get close to criteria, and we will issue a Special Weather Statement for this area. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast Thursday as heights increase with the aforementioned ridge building east. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Few changes for the long term forecast as the Subtropical High remains more or less parked over the southern CONUS. South Central Texas will remain on the southern periphery, with some very low chances of showers and storms over the Coastal Plains most afternoons. Ridging should build a bit more over the northeastern part of the state of Texas by this weekend, allowing flow to resume out of the east in the mid-levels. This should result in those aforementioned stray showers/storms over the Coastal Plains this weekend, especially on Sunday. Beyond that, the ridge builds back westward and shuts off any sort of sea breeze shower/storm activity. Temperatures will remain near normals for late June/early July, mainly in the mid to upper 90s and mornings in the mid to upper 70s. Heat indices in the 105-110 range will be common, and additional heat advisories may be needed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Patchy stratus is beginning to form just north of SAT. The stratus will expand in coverage across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor through the overnight, and potentially into the Rio Grande briefly 12Z-14Z. Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected with this stratus, however some patchy IFR ceilings are possible across the Hill Country. The stratus is expected to gradually scatter out 14Z-16Z with VFR conditions thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 99 79 100 78 / 0 0 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 77 98 78 / 0 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 97 78 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 102 82 103 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 98 78 99 77 / 0 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 75 97 76 / 0 0 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 78 95 77 / 0 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 98 79 98 79 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 99 78 99 79 / 0 0 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays- Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...76 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...76