Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
572 FNUS74 KEPZ 301751 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for BOX FIRE...BLM/SILVER CITY DISPATCH National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1151 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on June 30. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Another disturbance will be crossing the area this afternoon and evening with thunderstorm coverage similar to yesterday. Winds will remain low end breezy through the day out of the east to southeast but decrease tonight into Monday. More storms are expected Monday, but through the afternoon, the best coverage will remain west of the burn area. Little change in the weather going into mid week. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Isolated showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................1 until 2100, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 98. Min humidity........25 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East-southeast winds 10 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 17 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Very good (108700 knot-ft). Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........10 20 40 Weather cov.....NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 20 LAL.............1 1 3 Temp............92 96 98 RH..............37 30 25 20 ft wind......E 12 SE 12 SE 14 20 ft wind gust.20 24 24 Mix hgt (ft)....8200 9000 9000 Transport wind..E 17 SE 15 SE 15 Haines index....3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..109 117 117 Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD VYGD .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................5 until 2400, then 2. Min temperature.....Around 73. Max humidity........66 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast 6 to 7 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South around 15 mph shifting to the west around 9 mph in the late evening and overnight, then shifting to the east around 10 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Good (90700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (6100 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........54 54 58 56 56 43 Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD Chc of pcpn (%).60 60 40 20 10 10 LAL.............5 5 4 2 2 2 Temp............93 86 81 78 76 74 RH..............29 40 49 56 60 64 20 ft wind......SE 14 SE 10 SE 8 NE 7 NE 7 NE 6 20 ft wind gust.22 18 13 12 12 8 Mix hgt (ft)....7000 7000 1000 1000 1200 1200 Transport wind..S 15 S 15 W 9 W 9 E 10 E 10 Haines index....3 3 3 3 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..91 91 6 6 10 10 Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR .MONDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2. Max temperature.....Around 97. Min humidity........25 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the south around 7 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 11 to 12 mph shifting to the south around 12 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (22800 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (103100 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........30 17 28 30 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 20 LAL.............1 1 1 2 Temp............73 83 91 96 RH..............66 47 36 27 20 FT wind......E 6G9 SE 8G13 SE 9G14 S 7G12 Mix hgt (ft)....2100 2100 7600 10300 Transport wind..E 11 E 11 S 12 S 12 Haines index....3 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..23 23 76 103 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD VYGD $$ Forecaster...GRZYWACZ Requested by...SILVER CITY DISPATCH Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2416957.0/EPZ .DELDT 06/30/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV