Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
971
FNUS74 KEPZ 031627
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Feeley Piles RX...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1027 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1015 MDT on July 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Light and variable winds are expected to become more westerly as
the morning progresses. Low speeds will limit venting to high-end
fair or low-end good. Cumulus clouds will gradually increase this
afternoon with some of those clouds becoming showers and
thunderstorms. Lightning, heavy rain with flash flooding possible,
and gusty winds will be the main concern with any storms.
Tomorrow looks drier and warmer with fewer storms. Storm chances
will increase again on Saturday with a decrease on Sunday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 6 to 7 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........30 41 51 64
Weather cov.....NONE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 40 40 40
LAL.............1 4 4 4
Temp............78 82 85 86
RH..............51 44 36 34
20 ft wind......VRBL W 6 W 6 W 7
20 ft wind gust. 16 16 17
Mix hgt (ft)....6000 6000 7600 7600
Transport wind..NW 9 NW 9 NW 10 NW 10
Haines index....3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..46 46 59 59
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR FAIR FAIR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 6 mph early in the
evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph shifting to the
northwest around 8 mph in the late evening and
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (44500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2800 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........68 68 62 45 45 37
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 20 0 0 0
LAL.............4 4 6 1 1 1
Temp............83 76 71 68 66 64
RH..............37 46 57 59 61 58
20 ft wind......SW 6 SW 6 S 3 NW 2 NW 2 N 3
20 ft wind gust.17 17 10 8 8 9
Mix hgt (ft)....4000 4000 400 400 400 400
Transport wind..SW 10 SW 10 NW 8 NW 8 NW 8 NW 8
Haines index....2 3 4 5 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..45 45 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
the late morning and early afternoon, then
shifting to the west around 6 mph late in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 12700 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (86500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........27 14 22 39
Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 30 30
LAL.............1 1 4 4
Temp............63 76 87 92
RH..............56 36 21 16
20 FT wind......N 4G10 N 5G14 NW 5G16 W 6G16
Mix hgt (ft)....900 900 12100 12700
Transport wind..N 9 N 9 N 9 N 7
Haines index....6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 8 87 85
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 60s. Highs around 90. Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds around 6 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 60s. Highs in the lower 90s.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the upper 80s.
$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2417204.2/EPZ
.DELDT 07/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov