700
FXUS64 KEPZ 051704
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1104 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Thunderstorm chances return to areas mainly east of the
Continental Divide for today, with chances spreading area wide for
Saturday. Sunday looks dry and hot. On Monday, we return to our
daily pattern of at least scattered mountain and isolated to
widely scattered lowland thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near
to above normal with Sunday the hottest day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

After a relatively quiet day weather wise, we expect thunderstorm
activity to increase this afternoon. This increase is because
moisture is expected to arrive via an easterly push later this
morning and into the afternoon. Western areas, including the Gila,
do not look as active, however, likely from the upper-level dry
air being pushed in from the northwest around a high centered off
the CA coast. NBM had `chance` POPs for areas west of the Divide,
but I trimmed those down as no model guidance I can find seems to
support those POPs. The HREF keeps the west dry for the most
part. We more or less remain in this pattern for Saturday, keeping
thunderstorm chances in the picture. Moisture quality is more
evenly distributed than it will be today, so storm chances will be
area wide. HRRR seems to be hinting at a bit of a feature that
will help organize storms some tomorrow as well though its hard to
say exactly it is except for maybe a weak side-door front though
temperature advection is neutral to even positive. Main threat to
storms for both today and tomorrow is locally heavy rain and flash
flooding, especially for the burn scars in the Sacs as well as
gusty winds, potentially strong.

By Sunday, dry air will move in behind the aforementioned
boundary, limiting POPs to the mountains, the Bootheel, and far
southern Hudspeth County. There will be very few storms, if any,
in our CWA that day. With the drier air, highs will climb with
temps 103-107 common in the lowlands. Heat products will likely be
needed. The dry and hot weather is only expected to last one day
as another front arrives Monday to reinvigorate moisture and
storm chances. Depending on where the front winds up, portions of
the CWA may receive some boost to storm chances thanks to surface
convergence from the front. We pretty much finish out next work
week with a somewhat monsoonal pattern. The high off the CA coast
will re-center toward or just north of the Four Corners keeping us
within easterly flow. Initially the moisture will be mainly be
recycled moisture, but we`ll eventually see an open feed to the
Gulf of Mexico. PWAT values will be just over 1" for the period,
more than sufficient for storms. The only offsetting factor though
will be the orientation of the high, which will be a bit
elongated north-south. All that to say, next week will feature at
least daily scattered mountain and isolated to widely scattered
lowland storms in the late afternoon and into the evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

P6SM FEW-SCT080-120 SCT-BKN200-250 for much of the afternoon and
early evening with scattered1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 along and south
of a KSRR-KLRU line with isolated storms further west. Expect
storms to push south and end by 03Z with skies becoming SKC-
SCT120 with an isolated thunderstorm possible again after 09Z
north of I-10 in NM. Winds generally east to southeast 5-15KTS,
some gusts up to 30KTS possible on western mountain slopes
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Drier air has moved into much of the region, but moisture is
expected to return east to west throughout the day. The Gila,
however, will still see min RH values fall into the lower to mid
teens, but winds are expected to mainly be light throughout the
afternoon. For areas mainly east of the Rio Grande and especially
the Sacramento Mountains, there will be a chance for
thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances spread area-wide on Saturday,
with min RH values ranging from around 20 to 25 percent.

Sunday looks to be the day that will feature elevated fire
concerns as hot and dry conditions overspread the entire area. Min
RH values will drop into the lower teens and single digits.
Fortunately though, winds look to only top out around 10 MPH.
Sunday looks to be the only hot and dry day as a backdoor front
looks to bring moisture and storm chances back to the entire area
on Monday onward.

Venting will range good to excellent for today with mainly good
for Saturday. Sunday will see very good to excellent venting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  77  99  78 /  40  20  50  40
Sierra Blanca            90  67  92  69 /  50  40  40  40
Las Cruces               99  72  98  72 /  30  20  50  40
Alamogordo               95  66  94  69 /  50  20  40  20
Cloudcroft               71  50  71  54 /  80  30  70  30
Truth or Consequences    96  71  95  68 /  20  20  50  30
Silver City              92  65  89  63 /  20  10  40  20
Deming                   99  71  97  67 /  20  20  40  30
Lordsburg                99  71  97  68 /  20  10  30  20
West El Paso Metro       97  75  97  77 /  40  30  50  40
Dell City                94  69  94  69 /  40  20  30  20
Fort Hancock             98  73  98  73 /  50  30  50  40
Loma Linda               89  66  89  69 /  50  20  50  40
Fabens                   98  74  98  75 /  50  20  50  40
Santa Teresa             96  72  95  72 /  40  20  50  40
White Sands HQ           96  73  95  75 /  50  20  50  40
Jornada Range            96  68  95  67 /  40  20  50  40
Hatch                   100  68  97  67 /  20  10  50  30
Columbus                 98  73  97  72 /  20  20  40  40
Orogrande                94  69  94  70 /  40  20  50  30
Mayhill                  78  55  81  59 /  80  30  70  30
Mescalero                82  54  82  59 /  70  30  60  20
Timberon                 79  53  80  56 /  80  20  70  30
Winston                  88  58  88  57 /  20  20  50  20
Hillsboro                94  66  92  64 /  20  10  60  30
Spaceport                96  66  94  63 /  20  20  50  30
Lake Roberts             93  61  90  58 /  20  10  40  20
Hurley                   94  66  93  63 /  20  10  40  20
Cliff                   102  66  99  63 /  20  10  40  20
Mule Creek               97  67  94  65 /  20  10  40  20
Faywood                  94  66  92  63 /  20  10  50  30
Animas                   99  70  98  68 /  20  10  30  30
Hachita                  97  68  96  66 /  20  10  30  30
Antelope Wells           97  69  96  67 /  30  20  30  30
Cloverdale               94  66  92  64 /  30  10  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz