664
FXUS64 KEPZ 020826
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
226 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Daily storm chances this week, with the highest storm coverage
Wednesday afternoon. Storm will be capable of strong outflow winds
and localized flooding. Hot weather on Thursday before a backdoor
cold front briefly cools us down. Drier weather expected next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

High pressure aloft over the lower Mississippi River valley with
the polar jet moving across the central Rockies today. Plume of
deepest moisture focused across southwest and central New Mexico
today with PWs of 1.3-1.4" and surface dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Thunderstorm coverage will be highest across Grant/Sierra Counties
this afternoon, with more isolated activity elsewhere. Rain
chances exist everywhere, but a lot of far west Texas may stay dry
this evening with a greater influence under the upper ridge and
lack of instability. Temperatures will be warmer in the Texas
counties today due to the longer sunshine this afternoon.
Forecasting El Paso to reach 104 degrees, with other areas in the
upper 90s/100.

Shortwave over the central Rockies will shift the moisture plume
southward on Wednesday along with a slight eastward progression of
the monsoonal high. This looks to be the best chance for rain area
wide and the highest coverage in afternoon thunderstorms across
southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Enhanced synoptic lifting
at the base of this trough and PWs 1.3-1.5" will promote scattered
to numerous thunderstorms Wednesday evening, some of which may
produce strong outflow winds and localized flash flooding.
Slightly cooler afternoon highs due to this early start to storm
chances.

Drier air moving in from the north on Thursday will begin limiting
storm chances, influenced by the approach of the Pacific high
pressure and continentally sourced northwest flow from the Four
Corners area. Can`t entirely rule out rain chances Thursday, but
coverage will be more limited to the International Border. As
such, lowland high temperatures back to 100-105.

Backdoor cold front restrengthens easterly flow on Friday and
allow moisture to briefly flow back into the region. We`ll cool
down a few degrees and continue rain chances if this boundary can
indeed make it this far late in the week. Next weekend looks to
lean drier as high pressure over the US Southwest dominated the
pattern and shuts off our tap of subtropical moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Lingering showers and thunderstorms remain over the area tonight
but will continue to diminish through the overnight hours. Mid and
high level clouds expected to remain into the afternoon hours
with better coverage for KDMN and KTCS. Light winds overnight and
into the afternoon tomorrow, but another round of afternoon
monsoonal thunderstorms is expected, possibly with better coverage
than what we saw today. All TAFs sites have a chance to see a
thunderstorm tomorrow in the mid-afternoon hours. Gusty outflow
winds will be the primary hazard, but plentiful lightning and
small hail also possible with strong storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday will keep
fire danger low. New lightning starts expected to remain small
under light northwest flow and higher soil moisture over forested
areas. Min RH 25-40% with temperatures near normal.

Drier weather beginning on Thursday as drier air moves in from the
northwest. Does look like we`ll start seeing critically low RH
(<15%) Thursday afternoon and again next weekend, but daytime
winds are still expected to be light. Backdoor cold front
forecasted for Friday, shifting winds to the east. Less storm
coverage next weekend. Smoke ventilation Fair to Good next few
days, becoming Very Good late this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 104  82 100  81 /  20  50  50  40
Sierra Blanca            96  72  96  72 /  20  50  60  60
Las Cruces              100  75  97  74 /  30  40  50  20
Alamogordo               96  72  96  71 /  30  40  40  20
Cloudcroft               75  55  73  55 /  60  50  80  30
Truth or Consequences    93  72  91  71 /  70  40  40  10
Silver City              88  66  86  65 /  60  50  60  20
Deming                   97  72  94  70 /  40  50  50  20
Lordsburg                94  71  93  69 /  50  40  50  20
West El Paso Metro      100  78  97  79 /  20  50  50  40
Dell City               101  75  99  74 /  20  30  50  30
Fort Hancock            103  77 101  77 /  20  50  60  60
Loma Linda               93  72  91  72 /  20  50  60  40
Fabens                  102  78 100  77 /  20  50  60  40
Santa Teresa             98  75  96  75 /  20  50  60  40
White Sands HQ           97  78  96  79 /  30  40  60  30
Jornada Range            97  71  95  72 /  40  40  50  20
Hatch                    98  72  96  72 /  40  40  50  20
Columbus                 96  74  94  76 /  30  50  50  40
Orogrande                96  74  95  74 /  30  40  50  30
Mayhill                  86  60  83  60 /  60  40  80  30
Mescalero                85  59  84  59 /  50  40  70  20
Timberon                 84  59  83  59 /  50  40  70  30
Winston                  83  60  84  59 /  80  50  60  10
Hillsboro                91  69  89  69 /  60  50  70  20
Spaceport                95  69  92  67 /  50  30  50  10
Lake Roberts             87  62  86  60 /  70  50  60  10
Hurley                   91  66  89  65 /  50  50  50  10
Cliff                    96  65  96  64 /  60  40  40  10
Mule Creek               90  67  90  67 /  60  30  30  10
Faywood                  91  67  88  67 /  50  60  60  20
Animas                   93  70  92  70 /  50  40  50  20
Hachita                  93  70  91  71 /  50  50  50  20
Antelope Wells           93  68  90  70 /  50  60  70  50
Cloverdale               88  66  86  66 /  60  60  60  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
     NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt