Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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461 FXUS64 KEPZ 110908 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 308 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 With the summer monsoon in full swing, showers and thunderstorms will continue to occur across the region on a daily basis. While storm coverage will drop off a bit heading into the weekend, an uptick in activity and overall coverage of thunderstorms will occur early next week. In the meantime temperatures will not be excessively hot with high temperatures staying near or a little above average for the foreseeable future. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Monsoon season has certainly been a bit more productive so far this year than last. The key to this has been the availability of moisture as well as enough triggers to initiate the daily convection. And it seems that trend is set to continue throughout the current forecast period, although there should be a brief lull in activity Friday and Saturday. For today the driving force behind coverage and location of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is a well defined upper ridge that has been sitting over southern Nevada for a couple of days. Models are in very good agreement with slowly lifting this ridge a bit to the north and east over the next 24 hours. In essence this will shift our mid-level flow from a north-south orientation to more of a northeast-southwest type flow today. The end result will be a shift in the best coverage of storms with the focus extending from the Sacramentos back into the Gila and western forecast zones. Meanwhile the high should continue to drift a bit more north and east Friday into Saturday which will allow for a more east to west flow pattern. Currently the trend with this is to introduce drier air from the east, consequently resulting in the aforementioned reduction in coverage of storms heading into the weekend. In general, PW values currently are running around an inch but are progged to drop to between .50" and .75" during this time frame. Looking further down the road, the moisture will return starting Sunday and continuing into next week as an inverted trough is expected to move in from the east. This will effectively increase the coverage of showers and storms area wide. Throughout all of this temps will stay warm, but be tempered a bit by the monsoonal moisture. While the weekend may be a tad bit warmer than other days, lowland highs should generally stay in the upper 90`s to around 100 through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW050-BKN250. The winds will be generally light and variable through at least 19Z. The winds will become breezy 9 t0 12 kts with gusts up to 20kts while out from the southeast across the terminals between 20 and 00Z Friday. There will be a few TS across the Borderland after 18Z. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast period. Monsoonal moisture is here to stay with relative humidities above critical levels, although somewhat drier air moves in late in the week and early in the weekend. Winds outside of outflows from daily thunderstorms will be light to modestly breezy mostly from the east and southeast. Storm coverage shifts to the west a bit today with the threat for locally heavy rain and flooding being the primary threats. A general reduction in storm activity is expected Friday and Saturday, but better coverage area wide returns for next week as a moisture rich disturbance moves in from the southeast. Fuels will continue to moisten as a result of daily rain chances. Temperatures remain near or just above normal. Min RHs will be 15-25% in the lowlands through Saturday, 20-40% in the mountains. Vent rates range from good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 76 99 76 / 20 20 0 0 Sierra Blanca 90 64 91 65 / 10 10 10 10 Las Cruces 97 71 98 71 / 30 30 0 10 Alamogordo 93 66 94 66 / 30 20 0 0 Cloudcroft 70 50 72 49 / 60 20 30 0 Truth or Consequences 94 68 95 70 / 40 50 10 10 Silver City 88 64 88 65 / 80 50 50 30 Deming 97 68 97 69 / 30 50 10 10 Lordsburg 97 71 97 71 / 60 50 30 30 West El Paso Metro 96 75 97 75 / 20 20 0 0 Dell City 95 67 95 67 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 97 69 98 70 / 10 10 0 10 Loma Linda 89 67 89 67 / 20 10 0 0 Fabens 97 72 97 73 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 95 72 95 71 / 20 20 0 10 White Sands HQ 95 73 95 74 / 40 30 10 0 Jornada Range 95 68 95 69 / 40 30 10 10 Hatch 97 68 98 69 / 40 50 10 10 Columbus 97 73 97 73 / 20 40 0 10 Orogrande 92 68 93 69 / 30 20 0 0 Mayhill 80 55 83 55 / 60 10 20 0 Mescalero 81 54 83 54 / 60 20 20 0 Timberon 79 53 81 53 / 50 10 20 0 Winston 86 58 87 58 / 70 50 40 20 Hillsboro 92 66 92 67 / 50 60 30 20 Spaceport 94 65 95 65 / 40 40 10 10 Lake Roberts 88 59 88 61 / 90 40 60 30 Hurley 92 64 93 64 / 70 50 30 20 Cliff 98 63 98 64 / 80 40 50 30 Mule Creek 93 66 92 68 / 80 40 70 40 Faywood 90 66 91 66 / 60 60 30 20 Animas 99 68 98 69 / 50 60 30 30 Hachita 97 68 96 68 / 40 60 10 20 Antelope Wells 97 69 96 69 / 30 60 20 20 Cloverdale 92 68 92 67 / 50 80 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...27-Laney