Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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423 FXUS64 KEPZ 301143 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 543 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Abundant moisture will persist across the Borderland for most of this week. Expect scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon and evening, with strong gusty winds and local flooding possible. For Monday and Tuesday, thunderstorms will continue although the best chances for storms will shift out to about Deming west. The moisture plume shifts back over the entire area Wednesday for an increase in thunderstorm activity. Temperatures today will remain hot, but then lower a few degrees for much of the week ahead. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 WV imagery shows upper high still parked over NE Texas. Main moisture plume has shifted west of the Cont Divide and into Arizona. It appears last night`s activity may have developed from a weak easterly wave aloft coinciding with low level east surge. This led to late activity in what was otherwise the drier moisture slot. First look would suggest better chances of storms over the western third of the CWA, but models are showing another low level easterly surge this evening over the eastern CWA. Since this feature is a bit later than Saturday`s feature, we won`t have the daytime heating, but this will still have to be watched. PWs are down a bit from yesterday, but still show decent flooding potential, especially west. And like yesterday, wet microbursts could lead to very strong wind gusts. Monday through Wednesday...models have been pretty consistent with this period, showing moisture plume shifting west Monday/Tuesday for scattered thunderstorms, with just a chance of thunderstorms to the east. By Wednesday Polar jet deposits trough into the col area between the east Pacific high and the SE US high. This should give us a decent uptick in thunderstorms all areas. Thursday through Saturday...this period remains a bit volatile with the model solution. GFS shows drier air moving in with northwest flow around the east Pacific high. This would suggest a decrease in thunderstorm activity Thursday/Friday. Then GFS forms a weak low in the col area over the Sonoran Desert Saturday with some convection over Mexico advecting in. ECMWF remains much drier for all three days. Both models have significant differences in handling the path of Beryl which may be contributing to the differences over our area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions with SKC-FEW120 FEW250. Developing after 18Z...scattered BKN080CB -TSRA mainly over the mountains but spreading to the lowlands after 21Z. Gusty winds to 55 knots and small hail possible with these storms. Thunderstorms mostly ending by around 08Z. TAF sites KELP/KLRU could see a thunderstorm but chances are too small to mention in TAFS at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 As has been the case over the past week or so, the main threat for the fire zones (mainly the Sacs burn scars) will be heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Fire development and growth potential should remain low through the period. Storms today could produce strong and erratic winds in their vicinity. The week ahead does not show much of any significant non-thunderstorm winds. Expect larger scale wind shifts Wednesday (north) and Friday (east). Min RH: Lowlands 20-25% through Tuesday, then 25-30% Wednesday. Mountains 25-35% Gila through Tuesday, then 35% Wednesday; Sacramentos 30-40% through Tuesday, then 45% Wednesday. Vent rates very good-excellent today and Monday, then fair-good Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 103 81 101 81 / 20 50 10 20 Sierra Blanca 95 69 94 72 / 20 20 10 10 Las Cruces 100 74 99 75 / 20 60 20 20 Alamogordo 97 70 96 70 / 20 40 10 20 Cloudcroft 78 53 75 55 / 30 30 30 20 Truth or Consequences 96 73 94 73 / 20 60 40 30 Silver City 91 66 88 66 / 40 80 60 30 Deming 99 72 96 71 / 30 80 30 30 Lordsburg 98 71 94 70 / 40 90 50 30 West El Paso Metro 100 78 97 80 / 20 50 10 20 Dell City 99 72 98 73 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Hancock 102 74 101 76 / 20 30 10 20 Loma Linda 94 70 91 73 / 20 30 10 20 Fabens 101 76 100 78 / 20 30 10 20 Santa Teresa 99 74 97 75 / 20 60 20 20 White Sands HQ 97 76 96 78 / 20 50 20 20 Jornada Range 97 71 95 70 / 20 60 20 20 Hatch 99 71 97 71 / 20 60 30 20 Columbus 98 73 96 75 / 30 80 20 30 Orogrande 97 73 96 73 / 20 30 10 20 Mayhill 88 58 86 59 / 30 20 30 20 Mescalero 89 58 85 59 / 30 30 30 20 Timberon 86 55 84 58 / 20 20 20 20 Winston 88 61 85 60 / 30 70 70 40 Hillsboro 93 68 91 69 / 30 70 60 30 Spaceport 96 68 94 68 / 20 60 30 20 Lake Roberts 92 62 87 63 / 40 80 70 40 Hurley 94 66 91 65 / 30 80 50 30 Cliff 100 67 96 67 / 30 80 60 30 Mule Creek 94 63 89 64 / 40 80 70 30 Faywood 92 68 89 68 / 30 80 50 30 Animas 98 69 94 70 / 50 80 50 30 Hachita 97 69 95 69 / 40 80 40 30 Antelope Wells 96 68 94 69 / 70 90 50 40 Cloverdale 91 66 89 67 / 60 80 50 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ418-419- 423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ407-410- 411-427>429. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner