348
AXPZ20 KNHC 022119
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jul 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a broad area of low pressure, analyzed near 12N105.5W, 1010
mb. Environmental conditions could support some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days while it moves northward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance for
tropical formation within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has entered the far eastern part of the area. Its
axis is analyzed along 83W and N of 04N, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N and E of 88W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to low pres near 13N105.5W
1010 mb, to 09N126W. The ITCZ continues from 09N126W to beyond
12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 17N
and E of 116W. Scattered showers prevail along the ITCZ W of
133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to
moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore
waters. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft N of 25N, and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds are
present along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light
to gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue along and offshore the coasts of southern and western
Mexico through the end of the week due to the proximity of the
monsoon trough. The gradient between a surface trough along the
Baja California Peninsula and high pressure west of the area will
induce moderate to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of
California on Wed. Otherwise, the broad area of low pressure
currently along the monsoon trough near 105W could develop into
a tropical depression during the next couple of days while it
moves northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are present over
the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama while mostly
fresh southwest winds are over the offshore waters west of
southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. Seas across these waters
are in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell, with
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the
vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are just offshore southern Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds
producing locally rough seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere
along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
Thu, then increase to fresh to strong and continue through Fri
mainly N of 05N. Seas will build to 8 ft in this area of stronger
winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few
days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of
the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure
of 1036 mb, located well north of the area near 43N139W. The
ridge covers the waters north of about 20N and west of 120W.
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of 20N. Gentle to
moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the
ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these waters. Moderate to fresh
winds within 120 nm of a 1010 mb low that is along the monsoon
trough near 12N105.5W. Light to gentle northwest to north winds
are north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough
west of 120W along with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W
to continue through at least Thu night, with seas subsiding
slightly to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell. Elsewhere,
fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja California Norte
offshore waters are accompanied by seas of 8 to 9 ft in north to
northeast swell. These conditions will shift westward by Wed to
north of 28N and between 128W and 135W.

$$
ERA