493
AXPZ20 KNHC 020344
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jul 02 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has entered the far eastern part of the area. It
has its axis along 80W north of 04N, moving westward at about 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 08N between
76W and 79W, and from 05N to 08N between 81W and 83W. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are north of Panama over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia, west-southwestward
to southern Costa Rica, to 09N88W, then northwestward to 14N95W
and westward to a 1010 mb low near 12N107W, then to 11N119W and
southwestward to 08N126W and to 08N130W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N to 12N
between 91W and 93W and from 10N to 13N between 101W and 104W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ
between 135W and 140W, within 60 nm north of the trough between
106W and 110W and within 30 nm south of the trough between 124W
and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A rather weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for
gentle to moderate northwest winds over the Baja California
offshore waters where seas are in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell.
In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are
ongoing along with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to
gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident from just inland
southern Mexico, extending westward out over the offshore waters
west of that section of Mexico. Scattered to strong convection
moving northwestward is just inland western Mexico, reaching
northward to near the Arizona/New Mexico border.

For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will continue along and offshore the coast of southern Mexico
through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient
over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and
moderate combined seas over the Mexican offshore waters through
this evening. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas
are forecast to affect the Baja California Norte offshore waters
tonight and Tue. The gradient between a surface trough along the
Baja California Peninsula and high pressure west of the area will
gradient will induce moderate to fresh southeast winds along the
Gulf of California Tue afternoon through Wed. Otherwise, a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are present over
the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia as well
as the offshore zones between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands. Seas
across these waters are in 4 to 6 ft due to long-period south
swell, with slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador
and seas of 6 to 8 ft offshore the Galapagos Islands. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are over the waters between Colombia
and Costa Rica. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty
winds producing locally rough seas. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
most of the area through the forecast period, except south of the
monsoon trough southerly winds are expected to increase to fresh
speeds starting Fri. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast waters
through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas
may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure
of 1037 mb that is located well north of the area near 42N140W.
The ridge covers the waters north of 19N and west of about 125W.
Latest ASCAT satellite data passes depict moderate to fresh
northeast winds north of 13N and west of a line from 30N129W to
22N127W to 13N138W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds
are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these
waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast
winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W
south of the monsoon through this evening. Southerly swell with
seas to 8 ft will move through the waters south of 08N between
97W and 140W through most of the week. Additionally, fresh winds
will bring rough seas to the west of the Baja California waters
tonight. The northerly swell will shift westward through the
week, staying north of about 27N through Fri. Seas are forecast
to peak to around 9 ft Wed through Thu night between 126W and
137W.

$$
Aguirre