290
AXPZ20 KNHC 111436
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jul 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 07N to southwestern
Mexico near 106W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection
is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 15N102W to 10N121W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N121W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N and E of
89W, and from 05N to 09N between 125W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas
in the 5-6 ft range. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across
the discussion waters is resulting in light to gentle breezes
across most the Mexican offshore waters, with moderate winds over
the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-5 ft in S swell over the open
Pacific waters and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week, increasing
slightly this weekend. These winds will build rough seas by the
weekend. A surge of southerly fresh to strong winds may develop
in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Fresh to strong
southerly flow will prevail across the Gulf of California Fri
night through Sat night. Winds will be moderate or weaker
elsewhere, with mainly moderate seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted S of the monsoon trough. Seas
across the waters are in the 4-6 ft range in S swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will develop in the
Papagayo region tonight through the upcoming weekend, possibly
near gale at times with building seas. These winds and seas may
spread westward to the waters well offshore Guatemala and El
Salvador by early Fri. Southerly swell may build seas slightly
offshore Ecuador this weekend. Fairly tranquil conditions are
forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted over the NW
waters, mainly north of 20N and west of 130W. Moderate or weaker
winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-7
ft seas north of the 20N and west of 125W through the end of the
week. Tradewinds will be gentle to moderate NE winds between
10N-22N through the end of the week. Looking ahead, large N to NE
swell should move south of 30N and west of 120W beginning on
Fri. Southerly swell to 8 ft may reach north of equator to 10N
and between 110W and 125W this weekend into early next week.
Winds may freshen south of the ITCZ and west of 110W early next
week.

$$
AL