156
AXPZ20 KNHC 120221
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 09N near 88W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this
time.

The axis of a tropical wave was slightly repositioned along 105W
from 08N-19N. Scattered showers are noted along the northern half
of the wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 10N126W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N126W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 09N and E of 85W, and from 04N to 15N and W
of 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with
seas in the 5-6 ft range. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient
across the discussion waters is resulting in light to gentle
breezes across most the Mexican offshore waters, with moderate
winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-5 ft in S swell
over the open Pacific waters and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week, increasing
slightly this weekend. These winds will build rough seas by the
weekend. A surge of southerly fresh to strong winds may develop
in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Fresh to strong
southerly flow will prevail across the Gulf of California Fri
night through Sat night. Winds will be moderate or weaker
elsewhere, with mainly moderate seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted S of the monsoon
trough. Seas across the waters are in the 4-6 ft range in S
swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue in the
Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend, possibly near gale
at times with building seas. These winds and seas may spread
westward to the waters well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador by
early Fri. Southerly swell may build seas slightly offshore
Ecuador this weekend. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Gentle to moderate
winds are found N of 10N and W of 125W. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds
are S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5-7 ft are noted over the
NW waters, and in the 4-6 ft range prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-7
ft seas north of the 20N and west of 125W through the end of the
week. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected from 10N to
22N between 120W and 140W. Large N to NE swell should move south
of 30N and west of 120W beginning on Fri. Southerly swell to 8
ft may reach north of equator to 10N and between 110W and 125W
this weekend into early next week. Winds may freshen south of the
ITCZ and west of 110W early next week.

$$
ERA