718
AXPZ20 KNHC 050346
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Aletta is centered near southeast of Cabo
Corrientes 18.5N 108.0W at 05/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 12
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Showers and
thunderstorms have diminished over the past several hours near
the storm, and only scattered moderate convection is noted within
90 nm of the center. Seas are still likely near 11 ft close to
the center. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next
day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday
night and dissipate this weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Aletta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 06N90W to 1011 mb low pressure near 14N115W to 08N130W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to 07N130W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N east of 87W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Aletta.

Pressures are generally lowering across northern Central America
and southern Mexico, ahead of Hurricane Beryl in the northwest
Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to occasionally
strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Farther north, a recent scatterometer pass showed fresh southerly
winds over the northern Gulf of California, associated with
slightly lower than normal pressure across the southern Colorado
River Valley.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Aletta will weaken to a
tropical depression near 18.6N 109.1W Fri morning, then become a
remnant low before gradually dissipating near Clarion Island
through late Sat. Farther south, fresh to occasionally strong
northerly gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
into early Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across
the northern Gulf of California into early next week associated
with lower pressure over the Colorado River Valley. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the
offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Meanwhile, mostly gentle
to moderate southwest winds are over the remainder of the
offshore waters. Seas across the waters north of 08N are 5 to 6
ft range due to long-period south swell. S of 08N, seas are 5 to
8 ft within SW swell across the rest of the Central America and
Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell across
the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters.

Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of Panama and
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue across
the Central America offshore waters through Fri night, with
moderate to rough seas with these winds. Winds are also expected
to become moderate to fresh over the Galapagos Islands offshore
waters Fri through Sat night, along with moderate to rough seas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of
the forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and
locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1018 mb high pressure is centered near 32N125W, just east of a
weak surface trough along 135W north of 22N. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate winds across the basin, as noted in
earlier scatterometer satellite passes. Northerly swell to 8 ft
is noted across the waters north of 25N between 125W and 140W.
Moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except for a small area of seas
to 8 ft near the equator at 140W due to southerly swell.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 115W
through Fri, then expand beyond 115W through the weekend. Seas
of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside slightly
later Sat into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell.
Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja
California Norte offshore waters will develop Fri night and move
west through the weekend. These winds will be accompanied by
moderate seas. The 8-9 ft swell N of 26N will propagate westward
through Fri night where seas will subside below 8 ft.

$$
Christensen