364
FXUS63 KEAX 041132
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing showers and thunderstorms could further aggravate
  flooding threat. Additionally, some gusty conditions are
  possible.

- Another round of showers and storms are expected later this afternoon.
  Severe threat is based on conditions after ongoing storms.

- Flooding continues to be a concern with additional rounds of
  heavy rainfall possible over the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a surface boundary
and moved east through the region. A low level jet has intensified
out ahead of the boundary and nosed into western MO. The jet is
expected to veer east through the night. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed out ahead of the boundary. These
showers and storms have previously produced strong to damaging winds
but storms have weakened to where the severe threat has been
diminished. However, the main threat associated with these showers
and storms is flash and river flooding. The main areas that are in
the path of the most efficient storms are Wyandotte to Howard county
and south. As a result, a flood watch has been issued for these
counties and is in effect until 06Z Friday. There is some
uncertainty about how far north heavy rainfall will extend however,
rain accumulations are expected to be above 1-3" along and south of
I-70 with locally higher amounts. With already saturated grounds,
confidence in additional flooding is very high. These storms are
fairly progressive, but are still very efficient rain producers.

The line of storms is expected to continue to move further east
through the morning. Another round of convection is expected to
develop later this afternoon/evening with the passage of an upper
level trough to our north. There is a jet max at 300MB rounding the
base. Our area is in the right entrance region which places us in a
divergent quadrant of the jet. At 700MB, GFS keeps RH values above
70% through the day which could suggest significant cloud cover that
could hinder severe thunderstorm development. CAPE values ranging
from 1,500-3,000 J/kg across the area, lapse rates exceeding 7
degrees C/km, and bulk shear values exceeding 50 knots suggest a
prime environment for all severe threats. However, as previously
mentioned, severe thunderstorm development is based on the amount of
clearing behind the ongoing line of storms. Flash and river flooding
is still very concerning with additional rounds of heavy rainfall
expected. PWATs approaching 2" suggests the potential for another
round of heavy rain producing storms. We will continue to closely
monitor these threats and update forecasts.

Friday and Saturday are expected to be fairly quiet as winds shift
to the north behind the surface boundary. Rain chances return Sunday
as the pattern remains active. High temperatures are expected to
stay in the 80s through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Ongoing showers expected to continue to move to the east of the
terminals. IFR ceilings looking to improve around 15Z into the
afternoon. There is a potential for another round of showers
later this evening. Uncertainty exists therefore went with VCSH
for this evening. Winds are expected to shift to the northwest
later tonight as VFR conditions return.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ057-060-104-105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier