![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
044 FXUS63 KEAX 012011 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 311 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot and humid conditions expected to return Tuesday. - Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. The main threat will be damaging straight- line winds. The strongest storms may produce an isolated hail or a tornado or two. - Active weather pattern going into the holiday week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Today`s earlier showers and thunderstorms have cleared out towards the southeast, leaving behind some lower clouds and pockets of clear skies in its wake. Temperatures have fallen with the passing rain, ranging between 60s and 70s for much of the area. Looking ahead at the remaining weather for today, things should remain quiet with the ridge over the southern CONUS. Looking forward, we have an active period of weather setting up. The ridge currently located to our south will begin to degrade as several embedded shortwave troughs traverse along it. Tomorrow, an upper level trough centered over the Canadian Plains and its associated surface low will meander off towards the north. With this pattern, high temperatures and moisture content will be advected towards MO from the Gulf of Mexico. This will create dangerous heat conditions for the daytime tomorrow, and has prompted the issuance of heat headlines going into tomorrow evening. Cloud cover from the northwest may help alleviate some of the temperatures further north, so headlines have been kept further south in anticipation of this factor. Into the evening, the surface low`s associated cold front will create forcing for storms going into the evening and overnight. Looking at current conditions, there is sufficient forecast shear (40-50 kts) and instability (~3000 J/kg MLCAPE) present for severe storms. The primary threat with this line of severe storms appears to be damaging winds, with the possibility of larger hail also present as the line pushes across north-central MO. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out along this line. There is some remaining uncertainty on the possibility of training rainfall over northeastern MO with the traversing storm line. If the rainfall trains over this area and is not dynamic enough to separate itself from upper level flow, heavy rainfall could impact a swath of northeastern MO going into Wednesday. This uncertainty is further exacerbated by differing solutions in the evolution of the storm mode. However, getting closer to the event, more details may become evident with favorable environmental characteristics for storm development. As the ridge continues to degrade, there are more opportunities for precipitation throughout the rest of the week. Another shortwave trough on Wednesday will invigorate another round of showers and thunderstorms for MO/KS during the afternoon, with a lower severe threat compared to Tuesday. On Thursday, an upper level trough will dig towards the central CONUS, and invigorate another line of rain/thunderstorms going into the evening on the holiday. With these multiple rounds of rainfall and storms, there is greater concern for ongoing flooding, especially in areas that have already been impacted by heavy rainfall in previous days. However, this issue will need to be addressed as the threat continues to evolve through the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Showers and thunderstorms from this morning have begun exiting off towards the east, leaving behind low ceilings and gustier winds. Upstream guidance suggests the persistence of IFR ceilings through much of today, with model guidance insinuating that ceilings will rise closer to the evening from the south towards the north. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028>031- 037>039-043>045-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060- 103>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...SPG/BT AVIATION...SPG/BT