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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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703 FXUS63 KEAX 011720 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot and humid conditions expected to return Tuesday. - Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. The main threat will be damaging straight- line winds. The strongest storms may produce an isolated hail or a tornado or two. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 427 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 In the upper levels, there is ridging just to our northwest over central CONUS. There is a fairly zonal flow over the area with winds out of the northwest. At the surface, there is a surface high over the Great Lakes region. As a result, winds are currently out of the east. Winds are expected to slowly shift to the southeast through the day. A lingering surface boundary to the south has slowly drifted north. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along the boundary with isentropic ascent at 305K and have started to move east. They are expected to move into the region later this morning. At this time, no severe weather is expected. As the surface high continues to move further east moving into Tuesday, winds will begin to shift to south advecting warmer, more saturated air. High temperatures for Tuesday are expected to stay around the low to mid 90s. With increased moisture, dew point temperatures are anticipated to reach the low to mid 70s. Heat indices are expected to range from 105-111 degrees F across the region. A heat advisory will need to be considered for these conditions. A potential for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon going into early Wednesday morning. A surface low and associated frontal boundary is expected to move through the area with showers and thunderstorms developing along the boundary. Some storms are expected to be strong to severe with 40-50 knots of bulk shear, CAPE values almost reaching 4,000 J/kg, and 70 degree dew points. The main threat at this time seems to be damaging straight-line winds. However, the strongest storms may produce isolated events of large hail and a tornado or two. Uncertainty still exists with the event being a few days out. For the remainder of the week, the pattern becomes a more unsettled as several shortwaves are expected to move through the area. This suggests multiple chances for rain during the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Showers and thunderstorms from this morning have begun exiting off towards the east, leaving behind low ceilings and gustier winds. Upstream guidance suggests the persistence of IFR ceilings through much of today, with model guidance insinuating that ceilings will rise closer to the evening from the south towards the north. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...SPG/BT