710
FXUS63 KEAX 012329
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot and humid conditions expected to return Tuesday.

- Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon into
  Wednesday morning. The main threat will be damaging straight-
  line winds. The strongest storms may produce an isolated hail
  or a tornado or two.

- Active weather pattern going into the holiday week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Today`s earlier showers and thunderstorms have cleared out
towards the southeast, leaving behind some lower clouds and
pockets of clear skies in its wake. Temperatures have fallen
with the passing rain, ranging between 60s and 70s for much of
the area. Looking ahead at the remaining weather for today,
things should remain quiet with the ridge over the southern
CONUS.

Looking forward, we have an active period of weather setting up.
The ridge currently located to our south will begin to degrade
as several embedded shortwave troughs traverse along it.
Tomorrow, an upper level trough centered over the Canadian
Plains and its associated surface low will meander off towards
the north. With this pattern, high temperatures and moisture
content will be advected towards MO from the Gulf of Mexico.
This will create dangerous heat conditions for the daytime
tomorrow, and has prompted the issuance of heat headlines going
into tomorrow evening. Cloud cover from the northwest may help
alleviate some of the temperatures further north, so headlines
have been kept further south in anticipation of this factor.
Into the evening, the surface low`s associated cold front will
create forcing for storms going into the evening and overnight.

Looking at current conditions, there is sufficient forecast shear
(40-50 kts) and instability (~3000 J/kg MLCAPE) present for
severe storms. The primary threat with this line of severe
storms appears to be damaging winds, with the possibility of
larger hail also present as the line pushes across north-central
MO. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out along this
line. There is some remaining uncertainty on the possibility of
training rainfall over northeastern MO with the traversing storm
line. If the rainfall trains over this area and is not dynamic
enough to separate itself from upper level flow, heavy rainfall
could impact a swath of northeastern MO going into Wednesday.
This uncertainty is further exacerbated by differing solutions
in the evolution of the storm mode. However, getting closer to
the event, more details may become evident with favorable
environmental characteristics for storm development.

As the ridge continues to degrade, there are more opportunities
for precipitation throughout the rest of the week. Another
shortwave trough on Wednesday will invigorate another round of
showers and thunderstorms for MO/KS during the afternoon, with a
lower severe threat compared to Tuesday. On Thursday, an upper
level trough will dig towards the central CONUS, and invigorate
another line of rain/thunderstorms going into the evening on the
holiday. With these multiple rounds of rainfall and storms,
there is greater concern for ongoing flooding, especially in
areas that have already been impacted by heavy rainfall in
previous days. However, this issue will need to be addressed as
the threat continues to evolve through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Several notable items with this forecast. 1) VFR conditions look
likely (>65%) however, there is a small chance (20-30%) for low
MVFR to IFR ceilings. Have added a scattered group at 900 ft to
show this low-end potential. 2) A strong low-level jet will move
over the area tonight and that has the potential to lead to
LLWS. However, it`s more likely the boundary layer stays mixed
and the area remains gusty through the night. The better
potential for LLWS looks NE of the terminals. 3) A cold front
will move into the area tomorrow afternoon/ evenings, at the end
of this forecast. This will bring a chance for showers and
storms to STJ and MCI in the last 1-2 hours of this forecast.
For MKC and IXD, chances increase after 00Z tomorrow so those
sites will be added with the 06Z tonight forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>045-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB