533
ACUS03 KWNS 050740
SWODY3
SPC AC 050739

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern
Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone
Beryl approaches the lower Texas Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will be situated across much of the central
CONUS into parts of the Midwest and Northeast. A shortwave
perturbation within the flow will move southeastward out of Colorado
into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. At the surface, models are in
agreement that a surface low will deepen in the southern High
Plains. Rich moisture will return northward into Oklahoma and parts
of at least southern Kansas. The exact position of the triple point
and weak warm front/theta-e boundary is not certain and there is at
least some potential for the boundary to be modulated by decaying
early morning convection.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas...
Some convection is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
in parts of Kansas to potentially northern Oklahoma. Some amount of
diurnal weakening of this thunderstorm activity is possible. By the
afternoon, heating of the moist airmass (upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints) will promote the development of strong buoyancy
(2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The primary uncertainty at this juncture is
how far north will convection begin to intensify. The ECMWF/GFS
reintensify convection in parts of central Kansas with the NAM
developing stronger convection along outflow from decaying morning
convection in northern Oklahoma. With moderately strong
northwesterly flow at mid-levels, effective shear of 40-50 kts can
be expected. Given the potential for a severe wind producing MCS,
15% severe probabilities have been added to parts of these areas.

...South Texas...
Per the latest NHC forecast, TC Beryl is expected to be near the
lower Texas Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday morning. With
dewpoints in the 70s F being advected onshore and low-level shear
strengthening in the northeast quadrant of the TC, some tornado risk
is possible mainly Sunday night into Monday morning.

..Wendt.. 07/05/2024

$$