087
ACUS02 KWNS 061730
SWODY2
SPC AC 061729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on
Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong
to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New
York into Maine.

...Central High Plains into the northern Plains...
A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern
Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with
moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be
relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS.

At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western
NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery
across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold
front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops
off the Front Range.

Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of
the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few
supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a
brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening
with damaging winds likely.

...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast...
As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height
tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the
day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the
Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common.

Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and
storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass
from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel
westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary
layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage.

..Jewell.. 07/06/2025

$$