084
ACUS01 KWNS 050600
SWODY1
SPC AC 050559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon across
parts of the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley eastward into the
southern and central Appalachians. Isolated severe storms may also
occur across parts of eastern New Mexico.

...Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Southern and Central
Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great
Lakes region today, as southwest flow remains at mid-levels from the
Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At the surface, a low will move
across Lower Michigan, as a cold front advances eastward into the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will yield pockets of moderate
instability across parts of the region by afternoon. Some
high-resolution model solutions suggest that a line segment will
move eastward across parts of middle Tennessee and central Kentucky
this morning, and into the southern Appalachians this afternoon.
Moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a marginal severe
threat with storms that move into areas with sufficient instability.
Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. This
potential should extend northward into the eastern Great Lakes and
into parts of Pennsylvania and west-central New York. A hail threat
may also develop in parts of Lower Michigan, ahead of the
upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures will be cooler and
mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Concerning the
details of today`s convective scenario, confidence is low mainly due
to the wide variance of instability among the models.

...Eastern New Mexico...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the
southern and central Plains today. Near this trough, an axis of
instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across parts of
eastern New Mexico. Upslope flow will be in place across eastern New
Mexico, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be near 60 F.
Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of
eastern New Mexico by early afternoon, with other storms developing
in the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings during the mid to
late afternoon in eastern New Mexico near the axis of strongest
instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6
km shear is forecast to be between 30 and 40 knots, with 0-3 km
lapse rates peaking above 8 C/km. This should be enough for an
isolated severe threat. Rotating cells could produce isolated severe
hail. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible with
the stronger cells.

..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/05/2024

$$