Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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668 FXUS63 KDLH 301709 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1209 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and thunderstorms are expected Monday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms may be possible. - Rain and thunder chances persist at times through the end of the week. - The end of the week system (Independence Day evening) arrives just in time to put a damper on festivities. Bringing heavy rainfall and the possibility for severe storms to NW WI. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 High pressure today giving a super pleasant and sunny Sunday and even a decent Monday for the most part until the late afternoon when clouds start to stream in. The next system arrives Monday night bringing a lot of moisture advection on the nose of a 2.0" PWAT plume riding a 50 kt LLJ. Could see some efficient rainfall rates with this as a warm front lifts north. Soundings show deep moisture with a strong inversion limiting CAPE and thus capping convective enhancement, but WAA warm rain processes should be in full swing. Tuesday afternoon the remnants of an EML glide overhead with dewpoints near 70 degrees in Pine County may give a brief period of strong to severe convection as deep layer omega is maximized around this time. Things may still be active for a time afterward with plenty of shower activity, but alignment of forcing is more sporadic, so will have to wait and see how that pans out. This system finally clears out of the region on Wednesday as drier northwest flows temporarily fills in. The next area of low pressure arrives Thursday evening as an upper level trough crosses overhead. This will generate quite a bit of lift over the region with a decent tap into some instability, though still sub-1000 J/kg CAPE values) over NW WI and shear plentiful (>50 kt) there too. Looks like a good bet for severe weather to me. Meanwhile the ingredients in northern Minnesota are more lacking in strength and therefore it looks like a NW WI strong to severe storm event though there may be an Fgen component to the MN Arrowhead that still may result in heavy QPF, just not severe storms. The timing of this system is a tad quicker today compared to yesterday which puts a damper on holiday festivities. This system exits the region on Saturday with drier air briefly moving in again before another system arrives Sunday night/Monday in this active cycle. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions prevail throughout the forecast period. High pressure overhead today will keep skies mostly sunny aside from a few diurnal in NE MN and NW WI. Winds will remain light and variable today into tonight, then increase out of the south Monday morning, with gusts to 20-25 knots by the very end of the current TAF period. Some mid-level cloud cover works into the region late tonight into Monday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system, with lowering ceilings with showers and thunderstorms after the end of the current TAF period Monday afternoon into Monday night. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Light winds until east winds strengthen in speed on Monday with rain and thunderstorm increasing Monday evening as a wet system crosses. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolfe AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...Wolfe