388
FXUS63 KDLH 050619
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
119 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues with a chance for moderate rain
  today. The greatest chance of 0.5-1.0 inches is mainly south
  of a line from the Brainerd Lakes to Moose Lake to Ashland,
  WI.

- Another system will bring additional chances of rain this
  weekend, and intermittently again next week.

- High water persists across the Rainy River Basin and a Flood
  Advisory is in effect through early next week. See the summary
  at www.weather.gov/dlh/RainyRiverBasin for more information.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Active weather continues with an upper level shortwave moving
across the area today in combination with a warm humid airmass
and and weak surface features to generate some scattered
showers/storms. The upper low is over southeast South Dakota as
depicted by the nice swirl on IR satellite imagery this
afternoon. The convection driven by this upper low is mainly
over central and southern MN into WI, with warm air advection
driving up over a weak warm front extending from the surface low
over southwest MN east along the IA/MN border into southern WI.
A sort of inverted trough extending north into northwest MN,
and is associated with the scattered shower and storm activity
we are seeing there as well. While we have managed to build CAPE
of around 1000 j/kg this afternoon for parts of the area, deep
layer shear values are less than 20kts, leaving us with
primarily upright storms with little chance for severe storms,
though their slow movement may produce locally heavy rainfall,
though with the storms not lasting very long, any flooding risk
is going to depend on repeat storms over the same areas. This
pattern will continue into tonight as the upper low moves slowly
east across the area, with it remaining close enough to
continue to generate shower and storm chances through Friday.
With this overhead, we have been a little cooler than normal,
which should continue on Friday as well.

The upper low moves out in time to give us dry weather late
Friday night into Saturday, before another slow moving shortwave
swings through the broad upper level trough overhead Saturday
evening through Monday. From what is depicted now, we should
have another couple days of decent instability without much
shear, producing brief heavy downpours and lightning, but any
severe risk looks very limited at this point. Again, with the
upper low overhead producing more cloud cover, temperatures will
be near to below normal.

This active weather pattern continues through much of next
week, with what looks like yet another shortwave that dives
through the upper level northwest flow, but model agreement on
the timing and strength of this feature is quite low, and we are
left with some intermittent small chance pops through the rest
of the work week. The northwest flow aloft and northwest flow
aloft will also help keep us near to below normal for
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A band of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms stretched from
near AXN to BRD and AIT to RHI early this morning and should
persist and gradually shift eastward with time today. There`s a
small chance a few showers move into DLH before 14Z. Forecast
guidance continues to show decreasing ceilings at HYR through
12Z. IFR conditions are possible. For now went with MVFR
ceilings. Additional showers and storms will percolate this
afternoon over central and northern Minnesota. Backed off the
VCTS mentions in favor of VCSH. A storm or two may affect the
terminals, however, it seems predictability is lower than would
warrant prolonged periods of VCTS for now.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Northeast winds to slowly increase through this afternoon and
evening and gust in the 15 to 20 knot range tonight and early
Friday before diminishing again. Waves should build to between 1
and 3 feet. While this may make for a bumpy ride out on the
lake, conditions will not be especially hazardous for Small
Craft. Winds diminish Friday evening before increasing out of
the southwest late Friday night into Saturday. Speeds will
remain under 15 knots with waves of less than 2 feet.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

No updates with this issuance... Previous discussion below.

A Flood Advisory remains in effect across portions of the Rainy
River Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far
west as the Rainy Lake outlet. Lingering high water from rains
in June continue to be present across the Rainy River Basin. Far
headwaters gauges on the Kawishiwi River, Basswood River, and
Lake Vermilion have crested and indicate that the flood wave or
peak water levels are slowly making their way through the basin.
However, rises continue on the Vermilion River and Lac La Croix
and downstream of those points. This has led to high water and
some minor flooding on Crane Lake and Namakan/Kabetogama
(Nam/Kab) lakes, as well as lake levels increasing on Rainy
Lake. Per the latest IJC water level bulletin, dam operators
have pulled all logs at Kettle and Squirrel Falls, and continue
pulling logs at International Falls as conditions allow in order
to maximize outflow through the basin. However, the sheer
volume of water moving through the basin will still result in
rises on these lakes due to the natural constriction of the
flow. Vermilion River is forecast to crest late this week and
then begin slow recessions. Water level rises further downstream
on Nam/Kab are likely to continue (latest rates of rise have
been an inch or two a day, this is likely peak rates of rise and
should begin to slow by the weekend), with peak water level
early to mid next week. As is usual for this basin, water will
move slowly and recessions will happen at glacial speeds.
Additional rainfall may cause brief rises in tributaries and
extend the period of high water in core lakes. Boaters should
expect high water, potentially hidden underwater hazards, and
strong currents in constricted areas. Some northerly winds are
possible Friday, but are not expected to be strong, so wave
heights should be minimal. The Flood Advisory currently extends
through next Wednesday, but may need to be extended based on
observed conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.12
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...LE
HYDROLOGY...Huyck/Levens