776
FXXX12 KWNP 020031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jul 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3729 (S04E07,
Eai/beta-gamma) remained the most complex on the disk. Region 3732
(S18W18, Dao/beta) and Region 3730 (S17W40, Dro/beta) exhibited growth
among their spots. An M2.1 flare (R1-Minor) at 01/1102 UTC from Region
3730 was the largest of the period. The remaining numbered active
regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.

At approximately 01/1124 UTC a southwesterly CME associated with the
aforementioned M2.1 flare was first observed by C2 coronagraph imagery.
This relatively narrow CME was modeled and determined to be ahead of
Earths orbit. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low over 02-04 Jul with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on 02-04 Jul and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment gradually returned to background levels
during the period. Total field strength decreased from near 5nT to 3nT
and the Bz component was variable. Wind speeds decreased steadily from
approximately 500 km/s to 430 km/s. The phi angle was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to return to enhanced levels
from 02-04 Jul due to the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs that left
the Sun between 26-29 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled and active levels
on 02-04 Jul with isolated minor storm periods likely on 03 Jul due to
the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs that departed the Sun between
26-29 Jun.