488
FXUS63 KDDC 291900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two areas of storms... near the Colorado border, and a broader
  area overnight

- Cooler tomorrow with lingering cloud cover

- Hot again Monday through Tuesday, with a MCS pattern thereafter

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Broad NE winds prevails across the FA this afternoon. This is an
upslope flow pattern. Think there will be two areas of storm potential
tonight into the overnight. The first area will be near the Colorado
border late this evening. Steering flow is rather weak, so feel this
activity should be mainly confined to Colorado. Still, some of this
activity could drift across the state line late tonight. The main
threat would be some gusty/strong winds and heavy rainfall. The next
area of storm potential is not expected until the overnight hours.
Here, WAA induced showers and storms should develop across the FA
after midnight through the morning hours. Heavy rainfall is the main
threat here. In fact, WPC has 15% probability (a slight risk) across
far SW Kansas and 5% probability for the rest of the FA for excessive
rainfall. This does match with grand ensemble probabilities in the
40% to 60% of rainfall > 1".

Sunday will feature lingering precipitation across central Kansas
during the morning. Lingering cloud cover will continue through the
day as well. Have gone with a cooler solution with mid to upper 70s
across the NE zones to account for this lingering cloud cover and
precipitation. Elsewhere, 80s are expected for the rest of the FA.

An upper level ridge prevails through the start of the weak, but does
begin to flatten midweek. This supports hot highs Monday through
Tuesday. EPS has >90% probabilities of >90F for much of the FA during
this period. The ridge begins to flatten Wednesday as a system starts
to move out from the Northern Rockies and across the northern plains.
This UL feature should put a stationary front somewhere across the
state. Storms will once again be possible along this front and behind
it possibly as well. Nightly MCS pattern may develop with additional
chances at moisture. The rest of the forecast will feature near normal
highs and 15% to 40% pops.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Think that Colorado storms will mainly stay across the Colorado border
this evening. Attention then turns to the overnight period. WAA/elevated
showers and storms are expected across the terminals though the overnight.
Will include VCTS/CB groups in the TAFs to account for this activity.
Locally reduced cigs down to IFR or MVFR will be possible as lower
cigs linger through the morning hours. Winds will be NE to E 5-15
kt.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden