492
FXUS63 KDDC 041714
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and less humid weather will arrive today in the wake
  of a cold front.

- There are medium chances for t-storms Saturday and Sunday and
  smaller chances Tuesday and Wednesday, along with slightly
  below average temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A strong upper level system by early July standards that brought
a round of showers and thunderstorms overnight will progress
into the upper Midwest today and push a cold front through
western Kansas this morning. After some lingering early morning
t-storms ahead of the front, drier air will sweep into Kansas
today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The drier air and
light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 50s
(Scott City) to lower 60s in south central Kansas by Friday
morning.

A succession of upper level disturbances will progress into the
central and northern plains and upper Midwest this weekend and
into early to mid next week. However, the main upper level
trough will gradually shift eastward by mid next week. The first
upper level impulse will affect western Kansas Saturday, with
south winds, low level moisture and warmer air developing by
mid-day in advance of the system. An anomalous 500mb cold pool
(-10 to -12C) will also arrive Saturday, leading to steepening
lapse rates. Given the anomalously strong westerly flow at mid
and upper levels given the time of year, vertical wind shear
profiles may become favorable for severe storms during the early
to late afternoon, with large hail the main concern. Temperatures
Saturday could reach near 90.

On the heels of the Saturday system, another upper level impulse
will dig southeastward into the northern plains Sunday. Low
level moisture will still be in place, but there is uncertainty
in how much of a negative impact (cooling effect) Saturday`s
storms will have on instability for Sunday. However, given the
expected strong forcing for ascent, thunderstorms are a good
possibility, but severity is questionable given the uncertainty
about instability. This system will push a cold front through
western Kansas Sunday night so that Monday should be drier and
stable. For the Saturday and Sunday period, the EPS, ICON and
CMCE ensemble means show a potential heavy rain signal,
particularly across central Kansas, where 24-hr probabilities of
> 1" of rain are from 20 to 40%. Expect slightly cooler highs
in the lower to upper 80s Sunday given the expected clouds and
possible episodes of precipitation.

Although the main upper level trough will progressing into the
upper Midwest by mid next week, the ensemble means of the ECMWF,
EPS and CMCE indicate weak disturbances approaching Kansas from
the northwest on the back side of the main trough. Given the
relatively cold air at 500mb by early July standards (-9C), there
could be just enough heating and moisture in the presence of
very weak mid level capping to yield another round or two of
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, and possibly again
Wednesday. However, the potential for widespread heavy rain is
much less during this period, with the EPS, ICON and CMCE
ensemble means showing very low chances (10-20% or less) of
24-hr rainfall exceeding 1". Thus, expect the Tuesday and
Wednesday thunderstorm activity to be more scattered in nature.
High temperatures will likely be in the 85 to 90 degree range
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

BUFR soundings this morning from the CAMS showing areas of low
clouds in the 1500 to 25000ft AGL at 18z will give way to clear
skies by 20z as north winds usher in some cooler and drier air
into western Kansas. After 00z Friday these northerly winds at
10 to 15 knots will decrease to less than 10 knots and begin to
gradually veer to the east as an area of high pressure at the
surface begins to build into western Kansas from the north
northwest.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert