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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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615 FXUS63 KDDC 300530 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Two areas of storms... near the Colorado border, and a broader area overnight - Cooler tomorrow with lingering cloud cover - Hot again Monday through Tuesday, with a MCS pattern thereafter && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Broad NE winds prevails across the FA this afternoon. This is an upslope flow pattern. Think there will be two areas of storm potential tonight into the overnight. The first area will be near the Colorado border late this evening. Steering flow is rather weak, so feel this activity should be mainly confined to Colorado. Still, some of this activity could drift across the state line late tonight. The main threat would be some gusty/strong winds and heavy rainfall. The next area of storm potential is not expected until the overnight hours. Here, WAA induced showers and storms should develop across the FA after midnight through the morning hours. Heavy rainfall is the main threat here. In fact, WPC has 15% probability (a slight risk) across far SW Kansas and 5% probability for the rest of the FA for excessive rainfall. This does match with grand ensemble probabilities in the 40% to 60% of rainfall > 1". Sunday will feature lingering precipitation across central Kansas during the morning. Lingering cloud cover will continue through the day as well. Have gone with a cooler solution with mid to upper 70s across the NE zones to account for this lingering cloud cover and precipitation. Elsewhere, 80s are expected for the rest of the FA. An upper level ridge prevails through the start of the weak, but does begin to flatten midweek. This supports hot highs Monday through Tuesday. EPS has >90% probabilities of >90F for much of the FA during this period. The ridge begins to flatten Wednesday as a system starts to move out from the Northern Rockies and across the northern plains. This UL feature should put a stationary front somewhere across the state. Storms will once again be possible along this front and behind it possibly as well. Nightly MCS pattern may develop with additional chances at moisture. The rest of the forecast will feature near normal highs and 15% to 40% pops. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Recent radar observation show scattered thunderstorms beginning to develop over portions of southwest KS, and the latest HREF indicates this activity will continue to increase in coverage through the overnight period. However, current convective activity is far more sparse than most HREF members suggest, casting doubt on the degree of thunderstorm coverage and limiting TAF mention to only VCTS. Otherwise, warm advection will lead to MVFR/IFR cigs through much of the period, beginning to recover back to low-end VFR by 20-23Z Sunday. Regarding winds, generally east winds aoa 12 kts will gradually veer to southeast by Sunday afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Springer