102
FXUS63 KDDC 050844
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
344 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next round of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain is due
  Saturday evening through mid-day Sunday. The storms Saturday
  evening could be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  Sunday night and then again Wednesday.

- Warmer and drier weather can be expected by Thursday into next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

An active weather pattern continues across the central plains.
An upper level trough will persist across the plains and upper
Midwest through Sunday and then slowly move off to the east.
Individual disturbances will advance southeastward through the
mean trough, setting the stage for round of thunderstorms.
Surface high pressure will persist across the plains today, with
light winds and continued pleasant temperatures. By Saturday,
westerly mid level flow will increase as the next disturbance
approaches the central plains. This will result in a return to
south winds and increasing low level moisture and heat.
Meanwhile, a mid level cold pool of -10 to -13C will arrive
Saturday, resulting in increasing lapse rates and surface based
CAPE on the order of 1500-2500 j/kg, especially across far
western Kansas and along I-70. A few thunderstorm will form in
the afternoon and evening and these could be severe with hail to
2" in diameter and damaging winds given the 0-6km bulk shear of
30-40 kts and strong veering. The isolated evening storms will
form into a larger cluster Saturday night into the first half of
Sunday and propagate southeastward into south central Kansas. A
heavy rain signal remains, with the ECMWF, ICON and CMCE
ensemble means showing 20-40% chances of 24-hr rainfall
exceeding an inch across parts of central and southwest Kansas
(especially Dodge City south and east to Pratt and Coldwater).
Highs will reach near 90 Saturday. There is uncertainty in the
timing of the larger storm cluster, with some of the ensembles
holding off until Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will be cooler in
the 70s or 80s depending on how much sun returns in the
afternoon.

The next disturbance, albeit weaker, will arrive Sunday night,
but instability will be less in advance of it given the previous
cooling effect from rains and the northerly mid level flow as
opposed to northwesterly that often accompanies higher
instability. Therefore, a few showers and rumbles of thunder may
occur, but a heavy rain signal is absent. Yet another
disturbance will approach by Wednesday. Strong instability will
be absent given the northerly mid level flow and lack of a warm
surge from the south at low levels, but there will still be
enough CAPE given the relatively cool 500mb temperatures (-9C)
for scattered afternoon and evening storms. Widespread heavy
rain is not expected.

Northerly mid level flow will persist Thursday and Friday as
the main upper level trough moves into the Midwest. With warming
mid levels and rising 500mb heights, chances for precipitation
are low, with ensemble means showing little to no precipitation.
High temperatures will climb back to near 90 for Friday and
perhaps lower to mid 90s by Saturday as upper level ridging over
the Rockies nudges eastward toward the high plains.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Weak surface high pressure will settle across the high plains
through the period. This will result in light winds and VFR
conditions. A shower or two could affect KLBL early this
morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch