661
FXUS63 KDDC 031708
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday during the late
  afternoon and evening hours mainly west of US-283.

- Cold front on Thursday will bring cool, pleasant weather for
  holiday festivities.

- Temperatures will stay around or below normal through mid-next
  week, with little chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Recent water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveals broad longwave troughing is spread out from the Pacific
Northwest all the way through the central/northern plains and
into the Midwest. At the surface, latest observations show the
cold front has stalled out near the border of the OK and TX
panhandles, extending northeast from there. A few showers and
thunderstorms were noted across our far southwest and west
zones in the post-frontal upslope flow region, and these should
gradually expand in coverage through the early morning hours
into daytime Wednesday supported by 850-mb warm air advection
and moist upslope flow. This activity will be sub-severe, posing
only a heavy rain and lightning threat. Abundant cloud cover
and rain-cooled air will also keep temperatures well below
normal across our area, as afternoon highs only reach the upper
70s to mid 80s. Later this afternoon, an upper level shortwave
trough embedded within the broader trough will dig southeast
towards the central Rockies, and aid in the development of
convection over the higher terrain in southeast CO. These
thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity as they
approach western KS, and cross into our area around 23-00Z.
Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will exist ahead of
this activity initially, fostering a severe risk with primary
hazards of large hail and damaging wind gusts, but as the
boundary layer cools, thunderstorms will likely run out of steam
before reaching US-283.

On Independence Day, short range ensembles agree the
aforementioned upper level shortwave trough will eject into the
central/northern plains, sending a reasonably strong cold front
southward through our area. While this frontal passage is not
expected to bring any chance for precipitation, it will
transport cooler air into southwest KS, allowing for a very
pleasant summer afternoon for Independence Day festivities with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Daytime Friday, northerly surface winds will continue through
much of the day as the upper level longwave trough begins to
shift east ahead of a strong ridge building over the far
western CONUS. As a result of the persistent cold air
advection, another day of below normal temperatures is expected
as afternoon highs only reach the low to mid 80s. Over the
weekend and into early next week, medium range ensembles agree
the upper level ridge will make limited progress eastward behind
the stubborn longwave trough. Consequently, relatively low
500-mb heights will maintain below average temperatures for
southwest KS until mid-next week. However, this will be largely
a dry period, with the only chance for precipitation surrounding
Sunday evening as suggested by LREF probability of QPF > 0.1" in
the 30-50% range favoring the southeast half of our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

An upper level trough will exit the Central Rockies and move
across the West Central High Plains early tonight. As this
trough approaches, scattered thunderstorms (30-50% chance) will
be possible late today and early tonight. These thunderstorms
tonight will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and
wind gusts in excess of 40 knots. Areas with the highest chances
for reduced visibilities and stronger winds will be Garden City
between 01z and 03z Thursday and Hays between 03z and 06z
Thursday. Ensemble cloud ceiling probabilities and the latest
CAMS BUFR soundings support an >80% chance for ceilings in the
2000 to 4000ft AGL ahead of the trough and with the scattered
thunderstorms. Once the upper trough passes, thunderstorm
chances will decrease from west to east as skies clear.
Additionally, a cold front will cross southwest Kansas, shifting
the winds from the south to the northwest. The general
consensus from the CAMS earlier this morning indicates this
frontal passage and wind shift will occur between 12 and 18z
Thursday across southwest Kansas.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Burgert