651
FNUS28 KWNS 282143
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 061200Z

An upper-level trough is expected to move from the Pacific Northwest
onto the northern Plains this weekend into mid-next week.
Upper-level ridging will be suppressed over the West restricting
monsoonal moisture to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado,
east of the Continental Divide. Zonal flow aloft will linger over
central/northern portions of the Intermountain West through mid-next
week, with upper-level ridging building over the West late next
week.

...Day 3/Sunday - Day 6/Wednesday: Great Basin/vicinity...
Ahead of a cold front, dry and windy conditions will develop from
central Nevada extending northeast into central Wyoming on Day
3/Sunday. Elevated to locally critical conditions are expected in
these areas, with portions of the Great Basin having a second
consecutive day of elevated to locally critical fire weather. Dry
and breezy conditions are also possible from the eastern Sierra into
portions of the Mojave Desert due to downslope winds.

Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely from far northeast
California across far northern Nevada, southeast Oregon, and
southwest Idaho Day 3/Sunday. Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions
are likely behind the cold front and in the vicinity of potential
dry thunderstorm development as well. Better chances and coverage of
thunderstorms are expected from central Idaho through western
Montana, but these storms are likely to be stronger and wetter with
fuels not as critical in these areas.

Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely to continue in
portions of the western/northern Great Basin Day 4/Monday, with a
relatively narrow band of pre-frontal dry and breezy conditions
possible from northern Arizona into southern Wyoming. However,
forecast guidance has not coalesced around areas with potential
critical winds/RH and receptive fuels yet.

Another cold frontal passage is likely to bring dry and breezy
conditions to portions of the northern/central Great Basin Day
5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions possible
along portions of the Cascade Gaps on Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday.
However, the timing and strength remain uncertain precluding
probabilities for critical conditions at this time.

...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Sacramento Valley/vicinity...
A thermal trough is likely to extend from the Desert Southwest
through California leading to above normal temperatures and poor RH
recovery along and near this feature Day 3/Sunday into early next
week and again late in the outlook period. Gusty northerly winds are
possible in portions of northern California, especially in/around
the Sacramento Valley overnight through the morning of Day 4/Monday
- Day 5/Tuesday.

..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$