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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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901 FXUS61 KCTP 051128 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 728 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... *Very warm and humid summertime pattern with above average temperatures continues into next week *Showers and thunderstorms are possible in spots today and Saturday followed by a rain-free end to the first weekend of July && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 7AM/11Z: Sfc obs and MRMS radar show a weak wave of low pressure moving east northeastward across north central PA early this morning. Expect leading edge of main rain area to to pivot through the northeastern quadrant of the CWA through 12-13Z. The latest hires guidance continues to favor a suppressed convective scenario for today - leaning bearish for t-storms and potential severe risk - with very limited development through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Early day cloud cover and shower activity (leading to reduced instability) appear to be the primary contributors. CAM signal remains consistent in ramping POPs higher across the NW zones closer to 00Z. Previous Discussion Issued: 423 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Hires models are in good agreement tracking a cluster of rain showers/embedded thunder with brief heavy rain across the northern half of the forecast area through 18Z. We will adjust precip probs upward based on this bullish signal. Lingering cloud cover and subsidence behind the early day rain appears to result in a lull/min in precip this afternoon. CAMs suggest some additional convection could develop later this evening/closer to 00Z over the western into the central zones, but overall confidence is low. CAPE and shear profiles are supportive of isolated severe t-storm potential with a large MRGL risk SWO covering most of the CWA. However, timing remains a wildcard and could end up being to late in the day/after dark. Another hot and humid summer day across CPA with highs in the 85-95F range. With the humidity (dewpoints 70-75F), it will feel like 100-102 degrees across portions of south central PA particularly in the lower Susquehanna Valley. Max HX values ticked higher above the century mark and we coordinated with WFO PHI on the issuance of heat advisory from noon to 8PM. A couple of showers/t-storm will could linger overnight which will be very warm and muggy with low temps 65-75F. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Focus for t-storms will shift to the eastern periphery of the CWA on Saturday PM along and ahead of a weak cold front. Despite a very moist/unstable environment, most model guidance suggests limited storm coverage likely owing to neutral height falls and weak llvl convergence. That said, still can`t rule out a couple of strong t-storms over eastern PA. High pressure builds in Saturday night and provides a slightly less humid and dry (rain-free) end to the first weekend of July. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... All medium range guidance supports fair weather and above average temperatures into early next week with upper level ridging indicated over the northeast. At the surface, high pressure is progged to build over Pennsylvania Sunday, then pass off of the east coast early next week. The return southerly flow should result in an uptick in heat/humidity early next week. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms appear possible on Monday based on recent GEFS plumes but guidance continues to suggest a better chance of precipitation on Tuesday with the arrival of a cold front during the afternoon hours. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with regards to the cold front clearing eastern Pennsylvania later on Wednesday, so have retained PoPs through this timeframe. Towards the end of the period, deterministic guidance begins to outline high pressure influence into the region; however, given so much uncertainty earlier in the forecast period have opted not to deviate from NBM PoPs at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An area of showers are continuing to linger across NE PA this morning at sunrise. Many sites across the region are experiencing category reductions due to fog development, low stratus, and the aforementioned showers. Most sites are borderline MVFR to IFR with low cloud decks drifting towards the east. Conditions will likely improve to VFR fairly quickly after sunrise across most of the area, though it could take until late morning for BFD and IPT to see the low ceilings improve. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again later this afternoon, though coverage looks to be more limited than what occurred Thursday. VFR will likely persist through Friday night with the only restrictions coming in the form of a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Lower cigs could reintroduce restrictions by Saturday morning. Outlook... Fri...Sct TSRA w/ possible impacts; Mainly PM w/ highest coverage across the west. Sat...Sct to Nmrs TSRA areawide, highest chances SE in PM. Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise, no sig wx. Mon...SHRA possible SE late PM; otherwise, no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ026>028-035-036-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Martin/NPB AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen