497
FXUS61 KCTP 011622
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1222 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A large high pressure system will build into the region today,
followed by a dying cold front pushing in from the Great Lakes
and stalling out over the area by the middle of next week. Very
warm and quite humid air will return for the second half of
this week and last into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure (1026 mb or +2 Sigma) builds into the region today
and tonight, before sliding to the Mid Atlantic Coast by Tuesday
Evening.

Drier air is beginning to mix down and is causing the strato cu
that developed overnight to quickly break up. Look for a mostly
sunny late morning and afternoon with only scattered cumulus
across the area. Winds are gusting to around 20 knots out of the
north this morning, but they will decrease into the afternoon
and evening as the center of the high moves over Central PA.

Strong radiational cooling early tonight will result in min
temps in the mid and upper 40s over the northern and western
high terrain, and the low to mid 50s to the southeast. With the
light winds and clear skies, we could see some patchy fog
develop in the northern valleys, but most guidance does not show
widespread fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunny and several degrees warmer on Tuesday into at least the
first half of Wednesday, as upper level ridging builds over the
state and the aforementioned surface high drifts east and just
off the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England Coast.

Day-day high temp increases will be 5 to 8 deg F, bringing us
back to near or slightly above normal in the high temperature
category on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Despite the arrival of a cold front near the beginning of the
long term (Thursday-ish), heat builds and then lasts for the
rest of the long range poriod. The front likely won`t cleanly
pass through the state and will linger nearby for the end of the
week. The highest confidence of precip and storms is Wed night-
Fri, both due to the near-ness in time and presence of the front
and flattening/lowering heights. We could eek out a dry day on
Sunday. But, the PoPs are in the chance (30-50pct) range for
each day after - mainly for diurnal storms. At this point, the
SE half of the area may be the best place to get wet with thos
pop-ups each day. That would be good news for them as they are
currently the driest in the CWA (and in D1 drought status). The
flow stays generally out of the SW, and should be drawing
moisture and heat from the southern states if not the whole
GOMEX for the first half or more of next week. Thus, there isn`t
much change in the hot temps and muggy dewpoints through the
whole of the long range. 8H temp anomalies of +2C to +5C will
make maxes in the M80s to L90s common. The heat risk for the
period looks worst on Fri and Sat when heat index values get
around 100 for the SE/Lower Susq, esp in the urban heat islands.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR cigs persist over portions of central PA with residual
moisture trapped beneath a low level inversion. Mixing of much
drier air aloft should cause any early stratocu to dissipate by
mid- late morning, with widespread VFR conditions expected the
rest of the day. A fairly tight pressure gradient should result
in gusty north winds for much of the day with gusts in the
20-25kt range for most of the region. Expect winds to diminish
toward evening, as the center of the high pressure system pushes
into PA.

Outlook...

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog N Mtns.

Wed...Evening tsra impacts possible NW Mtns.

Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sct PM tsra impacts
possible.

Fri...Sct tsra impacts possible, mainly PM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2024 was the warmest June on record for Bradford with a
mean temperature of 66.6F, breaking the old record of 65.8F set
in 2021.

June 2024 was the 3rd warmest June on record for Harrisburg with
a mean temperature of 76.0F.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Colbert
CLIMATE...Colbert