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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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395 FXUS64 KCRP 111725 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to major heat risk today and tomorrow GOES Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery this morning reveals some low level stratus and patchy fog developing across the Coastal Plains. Any fog that develops will clear out shortly after sunrise. The upper level ridge will remain in place as we wrap up the weekend. This will promote generally rain-free conditions. However, there is a plume of slightly deeper moisture draped across the Southern Coastal Plains. Some of the CAMs hint at some isolated activity developing along the sea breeze this afternoon so have included a ~15% chance for showers and storms. Forecast soundings depict an unstable environment with very little wind shear. Any storms that develop should be short-lived. By Monday, the ridge begins to retreat slightly west, leaving a weakness aloft over the region. This will allow for an upper level low/inverted trough to approach the region early next week. Meanwhile, a weak surface low in Bay of Campeche will drift north towards the NE Mexico Gulf coast. This low will tug a swath of deep moisture towards the Texas coast. As a result, have maintained a near 20% chance of showers and storms on Monday, mainly focused on the seabreeze. High temps both today and tomorrow will range from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 out west. With slightly less moisture in place for much of the region, we look to stay below Heat Advisory criteria. With that said, a few locations across the Southern Coastal Bend may briefly reach 110 but only for an hour or two. Similar to yesterday, we will hold onto a low risk of rip currents as winds remain around 10 knots. Gerling-Hanson plots show a secondary wave system around 8-9s so we will need to monitor observations for a potential bump up to moderate through the day. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 - Low to medium chances for showers and storms on Tuesday - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week. We open up the long term with an upper low/inverted trough approaching the Middle Texas coast. Some of the latest guidance suggest this low will move inland south of the region with a ribbon of H5 vorticity wrapping around the north side of the low. With sufficient moisture in place, we will likely see an uptick in convection and potentially some enhanced activity along the seabreeze. Our upper level support will move north and west of the region by the middle of the work week. Enough moisture will be left lingering across the region to allow for low chances of convection along the daily seabreeze through the end of the work week. Looking at our temps, we will continue to see highs in the low 90s along the coast to around 105 out west. Heat indices will range from 108-114 at times with the greatest concern across the Coastal Bend. This will lead to a moderate to major heat-risk through the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Currently winds are light and variable but expecting typical southeasterly diurnal winds gusting to around 20-25 knots this afternoon/evening. Low 15% chance for showers in vicinity of ALI/CRP this afternoon along the seabreeze. Tonight MVFR VSBY`s for VCT/ALI, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow will persist through next week. We will have low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms daily through the week. The greatest chances come on Monday and Tuesday as an upper level disturbances passes through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 79 95 80 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 95 76 96 78 / 10 0 20 0 Laredo 101 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 97 76 98 78 / 20 0 20 0 Rockport 94 81 94 82 / 10 0 10 0 Cotulla 102 78 103 79 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 95 79 97 79 / 20 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 83 / 20 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...BF/80