487
FXUS64 KCRP 041107
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
607 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major heat related impacts are possible today

- Hazy conditions possible tonight, due to increased moisture and
fireworks.

The mid-level ridge will remain in place today through Friday,
keeping us hot and dry. We`ll still have high temperatures ranging
from the 90s along the coast to near 105 over the Brush Country,
with heat index values of 105-109 across most of the area. A few
locations could see heat index values around 110, but this is not
expected to be widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. Even
so, please be careful as you spend time outdoors today celebrating
the Fourth of July. Remember to drink plenty of water, take breaks
out of the sun, and wear sunscreen. Much the same weather is
expected on Friday, though the ridge will finally begin to push off
to the east as a trough moves over the Plains.

The only thing that may be slightly different from previous
forecasts is that there is a low chance that the long period swell
from Hurricane Beryl could begin to reach our waters late Friday. In
an abundance of caution, we have a moderate risk of rip currents in
effect for Friday. Beachgoers are urged to use extra caution,
especially near piers and jetties where rip currents are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness
  plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl.

- Increasing rain chances the first half of next week with at least
  a 5% chance of flash flooding on Sunday through Monday night.

- Hazardous coastal and marine conditions this Holiday weekend.

Very little changes to the overall forecast for South Texas in
regards to Beryl this morning. The hurricane has slowly begun to
weaken through the night, now with maximum sustained winds at
Category 3 levels (120 MPH), and still on a west-northwestward track
towards the Yucatan Peninsula into early Friday. Beryl is forecast
to further weaken today through Friday, but remain a hurricane until
making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. The land interaction will
cause additional weakening of this system and is expected to be a
Tropical Storm when it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico early
Saturday. From there on, some strengthening is forecast with Beryl
becoming a hurricane again before making landfall along the western
Gulf coast sometime Sunday night into Monday morning.

At this time uncertainty in regards to the track and intensity of
the system over the Gulf waters remains fairly high with the cone
covering a wide area from just north of Tampico, MX to near
Freeport, TX. Locally over South Texas, this currently involves
increased rain chances, especially during the Sunday through Tuesday
period with PoPs rising to near 60%. Latest QPF forecast calls for
accumulations on the 1-5 inches range through mid week owing to
plentiful moisture availability. With an added 5-15% potential for
flash flooding, WPC has continued to highlight a Marginal to Slight
risk of excessive rainfall across the area Sunday through Tuesday
morning.

Hazardous coastal and marine conditions are also expected with
swells increasing significantly over the weekend. This will lead to
a HIGH risk of rip currents and a greater potential for coastal
flooding. Beachgoers should be extremely wary of these conditions
over the Holiday weekend, and should stay up to date with the latest
forecast updates as these conditions may become a serious life-
threat.

Temperatures will remain very warm through Saturday with highs from
the low 90s to around 103. Mostly cloudy skies and increasing rain
chances will limit high temperatures to the low 80s to mid 90s
through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with a brief period of
MVFR conditions for ALI and VCT early this morning due to light
patchy fog and lower ceilings. Light winds from the south to
southeast will increase this afternoon to moderate with gusts
20-25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through the
end of the work week, with more moderate to strong flow developing
Sunday into Monday period. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
will increase Sunday through the middle of next week. There is high
uncertainty on the wind and wave forecast as Hurricane Beryl moves
into the Bay of Campeche, but increased wave heights and long period
swells are expected this weekend and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  78  96  77 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          96  77  95  75 /  10   0  10  10
Laredo           101  78 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             97  76  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          90  82  92  81 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla          102  77 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        96  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       90  83  91  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...LS/77