022
FXUS64 KCRP 022343
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
643 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

-Minor to Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through Wednesday.

Synopsis: Little to no change is expected in the short-term forecast
as a mid-level high centered over the southeastern Gulf states
continues to influence the region. This high maintains a ridge
extending over Texas and into New Mexico, which is expected to
remain largely unchanged over the next day or so. Subsidence under
this high pressure system will be the primary driver of the current
weather pattern, resulting in settled and warm conditions across
South Texas.

Precipitable Water Analysis: The GEF`s plume ensemble mean shows
PWAT values between 1.75 and 2.10 inches, slightly above the normal
values for this time of year, which typically sit around 1.70
inches. Despite the higher PWAT values, the overall dry air mass
will limit convective activity, keeping the region dry.

Heat Concerns:

The primary hazard over the next couple of days will be the heat.
Heat indices are expected to approach advisory criteria, with values
around 110 degrees today and tomorrow. While these heat indices are
concerning, they currently do not warrant a Heat Advisory. However,
conditions will be closely monitored, and the forecast will be
adjusted as necessary should the situation change.

Tropical Outlook: Hurricane Beryl is currently active in the
Caribbean and is heading towards Jamaica. As it is still several
days away from reaching the Yucatan and the Gulf, this discussion is
included in the long term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts mid-week

- High uncertainty late this week into this weekend depending on the
  track and impacts of Major Hurricane Beryl

A mid to upper level ridge is expected to remain in place across the
Southern Plains and Southeast CONUS providing subsidence which will
keep us dry with slightly above normal temperatures. However, as we
head into the latter portion of this week and weekend, uncertainty
enters the forecast as we continue to monitor Major Hurricane Beryl.
With the National Hurricane Center forecasting for Beryl to be in
the Bay of Campeche this weekend as a tropical storm, a few models
are showing an influx of tropical moisture with periods of heavy
rain. Due to the high uncertainty, went with 20-40% chances for
showers and thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon+ through Tuesday.
Regardless of the exact track of Beryl, high risk of rip currents
can be expected this weekend into early next weak along with a
medium chance for coastal flooding as the storm enters the Bay of
Campeche.

Slightly above normal temperatures will mix with high dewpoints
Thursday and Friday this week leading to heat index values between
109-113 each afternoon across the Coastal Plains and southern
Coastal Bend. Current WPC probabilities show a 20-40% chance for
heat index values to surpass 110 degrees those two days. Therefore,
a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts are expected for
the Independence Day holiday. If spending time outdoors, remember to
remain hydrated and always look before you lock, cars can become
ovens in as little as 10-15 minutes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions expected most of the TAF period with a brief period
between 09Z-14Z when ALI and VCT may have MVFR conditions due to
lower clouds and patchy fog. Surface winds will be SE and light
overnight, increasing to 10-15KT with gusts around 20KT by Wed
afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Weak onshore flow this afternoon is expected to become weak to
moderate by tomorrow but may become weak to moderate at times. No
showers are expected but Saharan Dust may linger over the waters
reducing visibility down to around 5 to 6 nautical miles. Weak
to moderate onshore flow is expected to develop Thursday and
continue through the end of the work week. Dry conditions are
expected through much of the week, however, there is plenty of
uncertainty towards the latter half of the week depending on the
track and potential impacts from Hurricane Beryl. As Beryl enters
the Bay of Campeche, you can expect rain chances to increase as
well as wave heights, especially across the offshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  80  95 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          77  95  76  95 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            78 100  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             76  99  76  99 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          83  93  83  94 /   0  10   0  10
Cotulla           78 103  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  96  78  97 /   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  91  83  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...TE/81