885
FXUS64 KCRP 012054
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
354 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

-High Risk of Rip Currents currently in effect today through late
 tonight. Then a moderate risk of rip currents tomorrow morning.

-Minor to Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through Tuesday.

Expect quiet and settled weather for the short term. The mid-level
high and associated 500 mb ridge will slowly migrate eastward today
and tomorrow but will maintain a nose into Texas, keeping our region
under an easterly flow aloft. This will maintain overall subsidence
and will help to moderate temperatures since we won`t be baking
underneath the center of the high pressure system. Chances of rain
are very low and have kept silent PoP`s in the forecast.

As the trough associated with Post Tropical Storm Chris moves
westward over Mexico, skies over South Texas are expected to clear,
with only Saharan dust resulting in lingering haze this afternoon
across the region. Onshore winds will continue to be weak to
moderate, turning southwest Tuesday morning. Elevated swells,
resulting in a High Rip Current Risk today is expected to slowly
subside with a moderate risk of rip currents tomorrow.

Afternoon temperatures today and tomorrow will increase slightly,
with an average increase of 2-3 degrees. However, moisture levels
are decreasing as drier air moves into the region. This will result
in a minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts today and likely
continuing tomorrow, despite the warmer temperatures. Heat indices
may reach 110 degrees briefly in a few locations but are not
expected to maintain these levels long enough to warrant a Heat
Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory for the Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country
  this afternoon

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday

The mid to upper level ridge will move eastward today and tonight
before becoming anchored across the southeast CONUS Friday and
expanding horizontally from east to west through the Southern
Plains. Before the ridge shifts, a weak shortwave will eject into
the Gulf of Mexico on the eastern periphery of the ridge. With the
best vorticity associated with the shortwave expected to remain
offshore and PWAT of less than 2" over terrestrial areas, showers
are not expected this afternoon. Our best chances for showers in the
short term will be Friday as a weak inverted trough moves through
the area. Due to limited moisture and uncertainty on the strength
and placement of the inverted trough, have keep pops on the low end
between 20-30% across the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads.

Near normal temperatures are expected to continue today and tomorrow
with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s near the coast to near
102 degrees out west. With dewpoints expected to bounce between 78-
80 degrees across the Coastal Plains this afternoon, heat index
values will also bounce from 109-113 degrees. Due to that, decided
to issue a heat advisory from the Coastal Plains to the northern
Brush Country from 1-6 PM this afternoon. Please use caution if
outdoors this afternoon and remember to always look before you lock,
cars can become ovens in as little as 10-15 minutes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon with a light
southeasterly flow. Saharan dust may reduce VSBY`s to MVFR throughout
the day. Fog possible again tonight but will be similar to last
night so opted to stay with MVFR VSBY`s overnight. The SREF model
is indicating up to a moderate chance (45%) of VSBY dropping to
less than one mile briefly tomorrow morning, will leave out of TAF
for now unless confidence increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Weak onshore flow will shift southwesterly late tonight, becoming
onshore weak to moderate by tomorrow afternoon. No showers expected
but Saharan Dust may linger over the waters reducing visibility down
to around 5 nm. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to
develop Wednesday and continue through the end of the work. Dry
conditions are expected through much of the week, however, there
is plenty of uncertainty towards the latter half of the week
depending on the track and potential impacts from Hurricane Beryl.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  96  79 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          96  77  98  75 /  10   0  10   0
Laredo            99  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             98  76  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          94  81  94  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          101  78 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        96  77  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       92  81  91  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...BF