008
FXUS64 KCRP 111131
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
631 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Some showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage as we
progress through the morning into the afternoon as the sea breeze
moves across the area. This will be due to some energy at 500-
700mb that will make its way around the ridge in the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to decrease
briefly around this evening due to the loss of daytime heating,
though another pulse of energy is expected to push through the
area tonight that will allow coverage to increase once again going
into tomorrow where a similar story will be in store. With PWATs
around 2.0-2.3 inches, some locally heavy downpours can be
expected with showers and storms that do develop. Otherwise,
expect the usual hot and humid ("though somewhat cooler")
conditions across the area with high temperatures in the 90s today
and tomorrow. Despite this heat indices will still be around 105
both days due to the the higher dew points. Though, it should be
slightly more bearable than the 110+ heat indices we have become
accustomed to.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

One more day of deep tropical moisture in the long term forecast on
Friday with an active sea breeze expected. Moisture will be shifting
to the north by this time, thus the most activity is expected over
the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads where 40-50%
PoPs are noted. Elsewhere, 20-40%. Mid and upper level ridging shifts
over the region Sunday through the middle of next week with mainly
dry conditions. An isolated sea breeze shower/storm can`t be ruled
out, but coverage should be quite limited. Otherwise, the forecast
is pretty seasonal, with near normal temperatures, though with a
very gradual warming trend getting us a couple of degrees above
normal by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

All sites are expected to remain VFR throughout this TAF cycle
except for LRD, which can see a few hours of MVFR conditions this
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning are
expected to periodically impact CRP and VCT with a low chance of
reaching as far west as ALI. Activity will pick up once again this
afternoon as the seabreeze develops around 18z across the eastern
sites and move westward throughout the afternoon reaching the
western sites from roughly 20-23z. Brief periods of reduced
visibilities and gusty winds can be experienced within any
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Weak onshore flow is expected through tomorrow night. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase this morning and persist through this
evening. There will be a brief lull in activity before rain
chances increase to a low to medium chance tonight into Friday
morning. Continued weak to moderate onshore flow is anticipated
through the weekend and next week. Scattered showers and storms
are expected Saturday, but mainly dry conditions thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  77  91  79 /  50  30  40  10
Victoria          90  75  91  75 /  60  30  60  10
Laredo            93  76  91  77 /  50  30  40  20
Alice             92  74  93  76 /  60  20  50  10
Rockport          92  79  92  81 /  60  40  40  20
Cotulla           95  76  92  76 /  40  30  40  20
Kingsville        92  76  92  78 /  60  20  40  10
Navy Corpus       89  80  90  81 /  50  40  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...JCP/84